My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cincinnati Reds ML +225, 5%
- Cleveland Guardians ML +105, 12%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +140, 8%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +170, 7%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 36.35% | -0.0366 | +165 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 37.99% | 0.2346 | +225 |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.80% | 0.0045 | -125 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 53.00% | -0.0195 | -115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 42.39% | 0.0173 | +140 |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.40% | -0.0053 | -160 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Cleveland Guardians | 60.83% | 0.2469 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 49.13% | -0.0174 | +100 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.53% | 0.0905 | -145 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Los Angeles Angels | 50.72% | 0.2172 | +140 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 42.28% | 0.0358 | +145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles | 45.64% | 0.2323 | +170 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.79% | 0.0084 | -110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.00% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 63.65% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 62.01% |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.80% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 53.00% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.61% |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.40% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Cleveland Guardians | 60.83% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.87% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.53% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Los Angeles Angels | 50.72% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 57.72% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54.36% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.79% |
Bayesball Picks 
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