Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Toronto Blue Jays ML +105, 6.5%
• Cleveland Guardians ML +125, 8.5%
• New York Mets ML +105, 10.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	Toronto Blue Jays	55.42%	0.1360	+105
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers	Cleveland Guardians	54.07%	0.2166	+125
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	51.40%	0.0537	+105
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	54.09%	0.0329	+125
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	59.42%	0.2182	+105
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	Chicago White Sox	46.70%	0.0975	+135
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	San Francisco Giants	50.00%	0.0900	+120
St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	53.42%	-0.0224	-120
Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics*	Athletics	62.19%	0.0635	-140

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	Toronto Blue Jays	55.42%
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers	Cleveland Guardians	54.07%
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	51.40%
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	54.09%
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	59.42%
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	53.30%
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	50.00%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	53.42%
Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics*	Athletics	62.19%

*Missing Angels starting pitcher