My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Detroit Tigers ML +105, 11.5%
- Miami Marlins ML -135, 10.5%
- Houston Astros ML +110, 9%
- Chicago Cubs ML -125, 8.5%
- Milwaukee Brewers ML -155, 26%
- Minnesota Twins ML +130, 6.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 60.76% | 0.2456 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | 41.47% | 0.0575 | +155 |
| Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 66.22% | 0.1523 | -135 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.46% | 0.0343 | -125 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 56.93% | 0.1955 | +110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | Chicago Cubs | 63.21% | 0.1377 | -125 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | 81.17% | 0.3394 | -155 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.67% | 0.1653 | +130 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 53.65% | 0.0247 | -110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.15% | 0.0212 | -150 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 48.82% | 0.0252 | +110 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles | 62.01% | 0.0046 | -160 |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | Atlanta Braves | 56.76% | 0.0842 | -110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 60.76% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.53% |
| Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 66.22% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.46% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 56.93% |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | Chicago Cubs | 63.21% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | 81.17% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.67% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 53.65% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.15% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | Boston Red Sox | 51.18% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles | 62.01% |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | Atlanta Braves | 56.76% |
Bayesball Picks 
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