My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +110, 5%
- Miami Marlins ML +120, 4.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML +105, 6.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +125, 6.5%
- Minnesota Twins ML +110, 6.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +190, 11%
- Seattle Mariners ML -125, 13.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 53.92% | 0.0676 | +100 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.11% | 0.0516 | +100 |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | 53.10% | 0.1152 | +110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 55.30% | 0.0119 | -120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.59% | 0.1130 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.15% | -0.0398 | -140 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 55.46% | 0.1369 | +105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Toronto Blue Jays | 56.61% | N/A | N/A |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | San Diego Padres | 40.98% | -0.0164 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 51.72% | 0.1637 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 54.43% | 0.1431 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 56.36% | -0.0194 | -135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles | 48.63% | 0.4102 | +190 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 67.65% | 0.2177 | -125 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.03% | 0.0562 | -190 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 53.92% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.11% |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | 53.10% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 55.30% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.59% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.15% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 55.46% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Toronto Blue Jays | 56.61% |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 59.02% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 51.72% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 54.43% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 56.36% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.37% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 67.65% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.03% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment