Once again, another day with very high confidence picks that fell flat.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/9
Net Units: -0.68u
ROI: -7.56%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 40/65
Sportsbook favorites won: 47/65
Picks won: 13/33
Net Units: -6.27u
ROI: -19.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.12% | 0.1623 | +100 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 44.39% | 0.0654 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 75.38% | 0.4398 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 51.37% | 0.2071 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 70.96% | 0.2560 | -130 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 47.46% | 0.0347 | +120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 70.59% | 0.5882 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.36% | -0.0283 | -165 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.47% | 0.2203 | +120 |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 69.64% | 0.2326 | -130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.45% | 0.2349 | +140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 34.39% | 0.3756 | +300 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 48.24% | -0.0112 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 45.03% | 0.2609 | +180 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Cincinnati Reds | 53.16% | -0.0272 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.12% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.61% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 75.38% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 51.37% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 70.96% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 52.54% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 70.59% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.36% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.47% |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 69.64% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.45% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 65.61% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.76% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.97% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Cincinnati Reds | 53.16% |
My losing streak continues.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -1.32u
ROI: -26.40%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 30/65
Sportsbook favorites won: 37/65
Picks won: 9/24
Net Units: -5.59u
ROI: -23.29%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 42.81% | 0.0728 | +150 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.16% | -0.0229 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 62.39% | 0.3414 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 51.21% | 0.1010 | +115 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 57.68% | 0.1016 | -110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 52.26% | 0.2805 | +145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 34.45% | -0.0181 | +185 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 53.23% | 0.0646 | +100 |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 72.32% | 0.4272 | +100 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.02% | 0.0459 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 48.22% | 0.2779 | +165 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres* | Colorado Rockies | 30.70% | 0.1207 | +265 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics* | Athletics | 55.87% | 0.0224 | -120 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 39.59% | -0.0499 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.92% | 0.0131 | -165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.09% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.16% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 62.39% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 51.21% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 57.68% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 52.26% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 65.55% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 53.23% |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 71.36% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.02% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.78% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 69.30% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics* | Athletics | 55.87% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 60.41% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.92% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
Yet another bad day. Mets completely choked.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/9
Picks won: 0/2
Net Units: -2.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 24/50
Sportsbook favorites won: 29/50
Picks won: 7/19
Net Units: -4.27u
ROI: -22.47%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.64% | 0.1529 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.40% | 0.0337 | -130 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 44.17% | 0.0381 | +135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 50.05% | -0.0090 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 48.34% | 0.1360 | +135 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 46.37% | -0.0030 | +115 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.63% | 0.1892 | +110 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 35.35% | 0.0606 | +200 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 44.33% | 0.0418 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.64% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.40% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.83% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 50.05% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.66% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 53.63% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.63% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 64.65% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 55.67% |
It feels like every time I get a good day, I immediately get a horrible one that resets everything.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.80u
ROI: -56.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 19/41
Sportsbook favorites won: 21/41
Picks won: 7/17
Net Units: -2.27u
ROI: -13.35%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 49.16% | 0.0324 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 57.50% | 0.0178 | -130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 53.40% | -0.0227 | -120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 62.09% | 0.0989 | -130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.99% | 0.0394 | -155 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 66.20% | 0.2645 | -110 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 51.12% | 0.1502 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 50.06% | 0.2264 | +145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 43.44% | 0.0425 | +140 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.62% | -0.0263 | -145 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves* | Atlanta Braves | 47.24% | 0.1573 | +145 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox* | Chicago White Sox | 44.00% | -0.0320 | +120 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 51.44% | 0.1318 | +130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | St. Louis Cardinals | 45.18% | 0.2875 | +185 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 31.48% | 0.1806 | +275 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.84% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 57.50% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 53.40% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 62.09% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.99% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 66.20% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 51.12% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 50.06% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.56% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.62% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves* | Atlanta Braves | 52.76% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox* | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.00% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 51.44% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.82% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.52% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Really solid day today. Makes up for yesterday’s fiasco.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/5
Net Units: +3.28u
ROI: 65.60%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 15/26
Sportsbook favorites won: 16/26
Picks won: 6/12
Net Units: +0.53u
ROI: 4.42%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.08% | 0.0329 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 57.40% | 0.1193 | -105 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 59.88% | 0.2276 | +105 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 45.53% | -0.0210 | +115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 62.85% | 0.4455 | +130 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 66.29% | 0.1071 | -150 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 69.01% | 0.2905 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 48.10% | 0.0341 | +115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.21% | 0.1741 | -105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 58.37% | 0.1966 | +105 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 45.00% | 0.1474 | +155 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.32% | 0.1426 | +170 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% | 0.0900 | +120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Athletics | 53.93% | 0.0301 | -110 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 30.78% | 0.1080 | +260 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.08% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 57.40% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 59.88% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.47% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 62.85% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 66.29% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 69.01% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.90% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.21% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 58.37% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.00% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 57.68% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 50.00% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Athletics | 53.93% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.22% |
Bayesball Picks 