Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• St. Louis Cardinals ML -115, 8.5%
• Baltimore Orioles ML -125, 7%
• Miami Marlins ML +100, 10.5%
• Cincinnati Reds ML +125, 5%
• Chicago White Sox ML +170, 9.5%
• Colorado Rockies ML +135, 15%
• San Francisco Giants ML +100, 6.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins	St. Louis Cardinals	61.42%	0.1485	-115
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	New York Yankees	55.13%	0.0309	-115
San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	61.96%	0.1153	-125
Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals	Seattle Mariners	53.75%	0.0749	+100
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Miami Marlins	60.78%	0.2035	+100
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	50.00%	0.1250	+125
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	Detroit Tigers	62.53%	0.0692	-140
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	Texas Rangers	52.16%	0.0328	+100
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets*	Atlanta Braves	52.60%	0.0414	+100
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	48.92%	0.3209	+170
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	56.52%	0.0004	-130
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers	Philadelphia Phillies	41.59%	0.0190	+145
Colorado Rockies vs Athletics	Colorado Rockies	59.97%	0.4094	+135
Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	56.79%	0.1245	+100
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	52.23%	0.0185	-105

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins	St. Louis Cardinals	61.42%
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	New York Yankees	55.13%
San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	61.96%
Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals	Seattle Mariners	53.75%
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Miami Marlins	60.78%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	50.00%
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	Detroit Tigers	62.53%
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	Texas Rangers	52.16%
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets*	Atlanta Braves	52.60%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox	Los Angeles Dodgers	51.08%
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	56.52%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	58.41%
Colorado Rockies vs Athletics	Colorado Rockies	59.97%
Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	56.79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	52.23%

*Missing starting pitcher