Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Kansas City Royals ML +110, 6%
• Miami Marlins ML -105, 8.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +135 (From yesterday)
• Detroit Tigers ML -110, 7%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +150, 4%
• Cleveland Guardians ML +105, 13.5%
• Colorado Rockies ML +155, 16.5%
• Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 6%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	New York Mets	56.39%	-0.0188	-135
Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals	Kansas City Royals	53.94%	0.1328	+110
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	Miami Marlins	59.59%	0.1620	-105
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	San Francisco Giants	52.02%	N/A	N/A
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	Detroit Tigers	58.86%	0.1241	-110
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals*	St. Louis Cardinals	61.09%	0.1180	-120
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	55.31%	0.1173	+150
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Angels	45.80%	0.0992	+140
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	59.86%	0.0774	-125
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	Chicago White Sox	43.08%	0.0985	+155
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves*	San Francisco Giants	51.25%	0.1173	+120
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers	Cleveland Guardians	62.56%	0.2824	+105
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs	Colorado Rockies	59.37%	0.5140	+155
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.70%	0.0009	-120
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners	Baltimore Orioles	51.30%	0.1543	+125

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	New York Mets	56.39%
Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals	Kansas City Royals	53.94%
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	Miami Marlins	59.59%
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	San Francisco Giants	52.02%
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	Detroit Tigers	58.86%
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals*	St. Louis Cardinals	61.09%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	55.31%
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	54.20%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	59.86%
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	56.92%
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves*	San Francisco Giants	51.25%
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers	Cleveland Guardians	62.56%
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs	Colorado Rockies	59.37%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.70%
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners	Baltimore Orioles	51.30%

*Missing Padres and Giants starting pitchers