My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML -140, 11.5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -110, 13%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML -105, 10.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +165, 14%
- Colorado Rockies ML +165, 3.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 13%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins | 43.90% | 0.0317 | +135 |
| San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 67.89% | 0.1609 | -140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals | Seattle Mariners | 61.16% | 0.0642 | -135 |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 47.21% | -0.0321 | +105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 64.52% | 0.2324 | -110 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 53.65% | 0.0247 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | Atlanta Braves | 48.16% | -0.0128 | +105 |
| Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | Houston Astros | 48.60% | -0.0281 | +100 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.68% | 0.2027 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 55.11% | 0.4603 | +165 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.19% | -0.0409 | -130 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Athletics | Colorado Rockies | 42.29% | 0.1208 | +165 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 57.42% | -0.0009 | -135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.51% | 0.2171 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | 49.02% | -0.0294 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.10% |
| San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 67.89% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals | Seattle Mariners | 61.16% |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees | 52.79% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 64.52% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 53.65% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.84% |
| Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 51.40% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.68% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 55.11% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.19% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.71% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 57.42% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.51% |
| Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.98% |
Bayesball Picks 
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