Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Detroit Tigers ML +105, 15.5%
• Los Angeles Angels ML +110, 14.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +135, 12.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	38.63%	0.0238	+165
Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	61.09%	0.0324	-145
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	New York Mets	50.00%	0.0900	+120
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals*	San Diego Padres	44.38%	-0.0014	+125
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs	Colorado Rockies	36.10%	-0.0254	+170
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers*	Minnesota Twins	40.38%	-0.0106	+145
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	Detroit Tigers	64.75%	0.3274	+105
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Angels	62.94%	0.3218	+110
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics	Athletics	57.07%	0.0273	-125
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Tampa Bay Rays	57.19%	0.3440	+135

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	61.37%
Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	61.09%
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	50.00%
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals*	St. Louis Cardinals	55.62%
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	63.90%
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers*	Texas Rangers	59.62%
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	Detroit Tigers	64.75%
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Angels	62.94%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics	Athletics	57.07%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Tampa Bay Rays	57.19%

*Missing Padres and Twins starting pitchers