Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Miami Marlins ML +145, 14.5%
• Cincinnati Reds ML +105, 7.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +135, 8%
• Cleveland Guardians ML +125, 10%
• Detroit Tigers ML +135, 3.5%
• Los Angeles Angles ML -110, 6%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +125, 9.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	Miami Marlins	58.19%	0.4257	+145
Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals	Kansas City Royals	52.65%	-0.0057	+110
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox*	Toronto Blue Jays	57.05%	0.0440	-120
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	Chicago White Sox	48.17%	0.0839	+125
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	56.75%	0.1634	+105
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	San Francisco Giants	51.94%	0.2205	+135
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers	Cleveland Guardians	55.52%	0.2493	+125
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	54.39%	0.0062	-115
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs	Colorado Rockies	49.52%	0.0473	+165
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	61.27%	0.0355	-145
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	Detroit Tigers	46.81%	0.1001	+135
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Angels	58.07%	0.1091	-110
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics	Athletics	52.30%	0.0399	+120
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners	Baltimore Orioles	45.78%	0.0300	+125
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Tampa Bay Rays	55.04%	0.2384	+125

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	Miami Marlins	58.19%
Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	52.65%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox*	Toronto Blue Jays	57.05%
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	51.83%
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	56.75%
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	San Francisco Giants	51.94%
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers	Cleveland Guardians	55.52%
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	54.39%
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	60.48%
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	61.27%
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	53.19%
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Angels	58.07%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics	Athletics	52.30%
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	54.22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Tampa Bay Rays	55.04%

*Missing Blue Jays pitcher