Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Kansas City Royals ML +155, 17.5%
• Detroit Tigers ML +100, 16.5%
• Washington Nationals ML +135, 4%
• Chicago Cubs ML -125, 8.5%
• Cincinnati Reds ML +100, 9%
• Minnesota Twins ML +145, 23%
• Cleveland Guardians ML -115, 7%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML -110, 12%
• Boston Red Sox ML -160, 9.5%
• Athletics ML +105, 13.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	Houston Astros	48.09%	0.0339	+115
Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	49.20%	0.0087	+105
Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays	Kansas City Royals	60.42%	0.5347	+155
Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins	Texas Rangers	44.37%	-0.0016	+125
New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	66.75%	0.3217	+100
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	47.17%	0.1084	+135
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets	Chicago Cubs	64.50%	N/A	N/A
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	59.18%	0.1717	+100
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	67.95%	0.6648	+145
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Cleveland Guardians	60.10%	0.1238	-115
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	63.93%	0.2211	-110
Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies	Boston Red Sox	69.02%	0.1182	-160
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	Baltimore Orioles	58.28%	-0.0384	-155
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres*	San Diego Padres	60.72%	0.1597	-110
Athletics vs San Francisco Giants	Athletics	62.50%	0.2812	+105

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	51.91%
Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Seattle Mariners	50.80%
Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays	Kansas City Royals	60.42%
Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	55.63%
New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	66.75%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	Philadelphia Phillies	52.83%
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets	Chicago Cubs	64.50%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	59.18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	67.95%
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Cleveland Guardians	60.10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	63.93%
Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies	Boston Red Sox	69.02%
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	Baltimore Orioles	58.28%
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres*	San Diego Padres	60.72%
Athletics vs San Francisco Giants	Athletics	62.50%

*Missing Padres starting pitcher