My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Kansas City Royals ML +105
- Los Angeles Angels ML +180, 14%
- San Diego Padres ML +165, 8.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.70% | 0.0018 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 71.30% | 0.0909 | -190 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 59.31% | 0.0023 | -145 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 55.35% | 0.0573 | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.37% | 0.0385 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 53.59% | 0.0985 | +105 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.10% | 0.0116 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 53.47% | 0.4971 | +180 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 48.60% | 0.2878 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 52.30% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 71.30% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 59.31% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 55.35% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.37% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 53.59% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.10% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 53.47% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.40% |
Bayesball Picks 
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