Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 8%
• Detroit Tigers ML +120, 8%
• Chicago Cubs ML -125, 8.5%
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +115, 5%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +110, 7%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -135, 11.5%
• Milwaukee Brewers ML -165, 15.5%
• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -170, 13%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	63.82%	0.0913	-140
Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	59.74%	0.1410	-110
Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox	Washington Nationals	48.42%	0.0651	+120
Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees	Detroit Tigers	54.62%	0.1907	+120
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	62.92%	0.1326	-125
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	49.27%	-0.0392	-105
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies	Pittsburgh Pirates	51.96%	0.1172	+115
St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	St. Louis Cardinals	54.82%	0.1512	+110
Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals	Tampa Bay Rays	67.26%	0.1704	-135
Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros	Minnesota Twins	49.58%	0.0412	+110
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	73.76%	0.1875	-165
Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies	Miami Marlins	62.23%	0.0018	-165
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics*	Los Angeles Dodgers	72.41%	0.1513	-170
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	San Francisco Giants	53.04%	0.0608	+100

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	63.82%
Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	59.74%
Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	51.58%
Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees	Detroit Tigers	54.62%
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	62.92%
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays	New York Mets	50.73%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies	Pittsburgh Pirates	51.96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	St. Louis Cardinals	54.82%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals	Tampa Bay Rays	67.26%
Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	50.42%
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	73.76%
Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies	Miami Marlins	62.23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics*	Los Angeles Dodgers	72.41%
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	San Francisco Giants	53.04%

*Missing starting pitchers