My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 8%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 8.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML -135, 8.5%
- Miami Marlins ML -125, 7%
- Chicago White Sox ML +135, 5%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +105, 12.5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 10.5%
- Washington Nationals ML -105, 10.5
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 50.00% | 0.0000 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.00% | 0.1461 | -110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 60.65% | 0.1583 | -110 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 64.80% | 0.1276 | -135 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 61.72% | 0.1109 | -125 |
| New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Yankees | 63.05% | 0.0970 | -135 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays | Philadelphia Phillies | 52.34% | -0.0422 | -120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.76% | -0.0323 | -125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Texas Rangers | 54.93% | -0.0113 | -125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 48.52% | 0.1401 | +135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 46.12% | 0.0376 | +125 |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 61.84% | 0.2677 | +105 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 64.19% | 0.1746 | -120 |
| Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants | Washington Nationals | 61.67% | 0.2026 | -105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Athletics | Athletics | 50.18% | -0.0215 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.00% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 60.65% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 64.80% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 61.72% |
| New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Yankees | 63.05% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays | Philadelphia Phillies | 52.34% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.76% |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Texas Rangers | 54.93% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox | Atlanta Braves | 51.48% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 53.88% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 61.84% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 64.19% |
| Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants | Washington Nationals | 61.67% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Athletics | Athletics | 50.18% |
Bayesball Picks 
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