Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Toronto Blue Jays ML +155, 3.5%
• Houston Astros ML -130, 9.5%
• Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 21.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles*	Seattle Mariners	50.34%	N/A	N/A
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	Boston Red Sox	53.31%	-0.0138	-115
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	51.74%	-0.0428	-115
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	43.77%	0.1117	+155
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	Houston Astros	64.67%	0.1447	-130
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	Cincinnati Reds	69.01%	0.5045	+120
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	Washington Nationals	45.37%	0.0662	+135
Milwaukee Brewers vs Athletics	Athletics	45.32%	0.0651	+135

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles*	Seattle Mariners	50.34%
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	Boston Red Sox	53.31%
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	51.74%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	Philadelphia Phillies	56.23%
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	Houston Astros	64.67%
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	Cincinnati Reds	69.01%
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	54.63%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Athletics	Milwaukee Brewers	54.68%

*Missing Orioles starting pitcher