Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Baltimore Orioles ML -135, 10.5%
• Chicago White Sox ML +125, 9%
• Philadelphia Phillies ML +200, 8%
• Kansas City Royals ML -105, 13.5%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 10%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Miami Marlins	47.60%	0.0378	+120
Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	44.37%	-0.0016	+125
San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	66.47%	0.1565	-135
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	Detroit Tigers	49.05%	0.0055	+105
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	Texas Rangers	51.96%	0.0653	+105
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	52.43%	-0.0301	-115
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	New York Mets	53.99%	-0.0282	-125
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays*	New York Yankees	51.64%	0.0069	-105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	54.31%	0.2221	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers	Philadelphia Phillies	44.26%	0.3279	+200
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	64.56%	0.2589	-105
St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins	St. Louis Cardinals	57.39%	0.2338	+115
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	Tampa Bay Rays	62.24%	-0.0104	-170
Colorado Rockies vs Athletics*	Athletics	66.68%	-0.0332	-220
Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	54.25%	-0.0397	-130

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	52.40%
Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals	Seattle Mariners	55.63%
San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	66.47%
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	50.95%
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	Texas Rangers	51.96%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	52.43%
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	New York Mets	53.99%
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays*	New York Yankees	51.64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	54.31%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	55.74%
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	64.56%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins	St. Louis Cardinals	57.39%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	Tampa Bay Rays	62.24%
Colorado Rockies vs Athletics*	Athletics	66.68%
Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	54.25%

*Missing starting pitchers