Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 8.5%
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +170, 7%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML -110, 14.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	64.28%	0.0606	-155
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians	New York Yankees	51.28%	0.0256	+100
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	Washington Nationals	50.62%	0.0124	+100
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	Cincinnati Reds	51.43%	0.2342	+140
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	49.27%	-0.0145	+100
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	46.05%	0.2433	+170
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers*	Minnesota Twins	41.33%	-0.0288	+135
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	Arizona Diamondbacks	66.21%	0.2647	-110
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	Philadelphia Phillies	62.26%	0.0272	-155
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	60.26%	0.0305	-140
Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	52.39%	0.0478	+100
Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox*	Chicago White Sox	48.15%	0.0834	+125
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies	Chicago Cubs	64.10%	0.0063	-175
Milwaukee Brewers vs Athletics	Athletics	51.91%	-0.0084	-110
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	Houston Astros	54.32%	0.0864	+100

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	64.28%
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians	New York Yankees	51.28%
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	Washington Nationals	50.62%
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	Cincinnati Reds	51.43%
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles	Seattle Mariners	50.73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Los Angeles Dodgers	53.95%
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers*	Detroit Tigers	58.67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	Arizona Diamondbacks	66.21%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	Philadelphia Phillies	62.26%
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	60.26%
Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	52.39%
Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox*	Atlanta Braves	51.85%
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies	Chicago Cubs	64.10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Athletics	Athletics	51.91%
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	Houston Astros	54.32%

*Missing Twins and White Sox starting pitchers