Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 4.5%
• Detroit Tigers ML -125, 7.5%
• Miami Marlins ML -115, 15%
• Chicago White Sox ML +100, 5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets	St. Louis Cardinals	50.66%	0.1043	+120
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	62.32%	0.1217	-125
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	67.42%	0.2607	-115
Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	56.47%	0.0333	-120
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	47.32%	0.0647	+125
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	50.99%	0.1763	+140
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	55.38%	0.0799	-105
Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox*	Chicago White Sox	54.77%	0.0954	+100

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets	St. Louis Cardinals	50.66%
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	62.32%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	67.42%
Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	56.47%
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies	Chicago Cubs	52.68%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Los Angeles Dodgers	50.99%
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	55.38%
Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox*	Chicago White Sox	54.77%

*Missing White Sox starting pitcher