A lot of chokes today, but they were 50/50 games anyways so I can’t be too mad.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.95u
ROI: -59.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 51/92
Sportsbook favorites won: 50/92
Picks won: 19/33
Net Units: +8.25u
ROI: 25.00%
Seventh Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.89% | 0.1386 | -115 |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Houston Astros | 44.38% | 0.0650 | +140 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.89% | 0.0045 | -120 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 40.14% | 0.1641 | +190 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.06% | 0.0099 | -140 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.72% | 0.0393 | -130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.61% | 0.1387 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.30% | -0.0147 | -145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.06% | 0.0813 | +145 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 44.08% | 0.0799 | +145 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 58.76% | 0.0753 | -120 |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.30% | 0.0562 | +110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Kansas City Royals | 54.73% | 0.1220 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% | 0.2750 | +155 |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.33% | -0.0424 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.89% |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 55.62% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.89% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 59.86% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.06% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.72% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.61% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.30% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.94% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | Atlanta Braves | 55.92% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 58.76% |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.30% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Kansas City Royals | 54.73% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 50.00% |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.33% |
*Missing Brewers starting pitcher
Really solid day. White Sox been doing me good.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/4
Net Units: +2.63u
ROI: 65.75%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 42/77
Sportsbook favorites won: 40/77
Picks won: 18/28
Net Units: +11.20u
ROI: 40.00%
Sixth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 46.80% | 0.0999 | +135 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 48.83% | 0.0254 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 63.45% | 0.0088 | -170 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 47.87% | 0.0053 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 54.42% | 0.1428 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 47.29% | 0.0168 | +115 |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.40% | 0.0511 | -125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 61.42% | 0.1240 | -120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | San Francisco Giants | 55.96% | 0.0912 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.42% | 0.1009 | +110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.80% | -0.0288 | -140 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies* | Colorado Rockies | 39.72% | 0.1321 | +185 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 60.54% | 0.6345 | +170 |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.83% | 0.0674 | +110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Kansas City Royals | 50.00% | 0.0900 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 53.20% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.17% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 63.45% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Athletics | 52.13% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 54.42% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.71% |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.40% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 61.42% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | San Francisco Giants | 55.96% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.42% |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.80% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies* | Atlanta Braves | 60.28% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 60.54% |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.83% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
*Missing Rockies starting pitcher
Ok day today. Kinda sucks that both the Rockies and Angels choked hard.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -0.85u
ROI: -17.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 32/62
Sportsbook favorites won: 31/62
Picks won: 15/24
Net Units: +8.57u
ROI: 35.71%
Fifth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 51.56% | 0.0414 | +115 |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Texas Rangers | 48.75% | -0.0347 | +100 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 48.93% | 0.0032 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 41.93% | -0.0146 | +135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 50.17% | 0.2792 | +155 |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.83% | 0.0699 | -115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | San Francisco Giants | 47.12% | -0.0104 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 48.39% | -0.0080 | +105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 59.61% | 0.1625 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.43% | 0.0820 | +155 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 45.87% | 0.2155 | +165 |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 64.16% | 0.3153 | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 54.51% | 0.0629 | -105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 73.25% | 0.6115 | +120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.99% | -0.0101 | -155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 51.56% |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.25% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.07% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.07% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 50.17% |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.83% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.88% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.61% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 59.61% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers | 57.57% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | Atlanta Braves | 54.13% |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 64.16% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 54.51% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 73.25% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.99% |
Pretty bad day for both me and the book.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 3/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/11
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -0.15u
ROI: -5.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 22/47
Sportsbook favorites won: 22/47
Picks won: 13/19
Net Units: +9.42u
ROI: 49.58%
Fourth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves | Detroit Tigers | 50.00% | -0.0250 | -105 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 71.61% | 0.3106 | -120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals | 40.60% | 0.1572 | +185 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies* | San Francisco Giants | 48.12% | 0.0587 | +120 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 68.86% | 0.2601 | -120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | 50.00% | 0.2250 | +145 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | Washington Nationals | 39.38% | 0.1027 | +180 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.24% | 0.1939 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.93% | -0.0113 | -125 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies* | San Francisco Giants | 54.26% | 0.1938 | +120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.72% | 0.0739 | -135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Expected Winner | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 50.00% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 71.61% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.40% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies* | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.88% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 68.86% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | 50.00% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 60.62% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.24% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.93% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies* | San Francisco Giants | 54.26% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.72% |
* Missing starting pitcher for teams
Lowkey wish that this was later and not during testing. 6/6 is such a good day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/13
Picks won: 6/6
Net Units: +6.43u
ROI: 107.17%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 19/36
Sportsbook favorites won: 18/36
Picks won: 12/16
Net Units: +9.57u
ROI: 59.81%
Third Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.64% | 0.0928 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 55.43% | 0.1641 | +110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 47.13% | -0.0103 | +110 |
| New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers | New York Yankees | 53.94% | -0.0129 | -120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 64.71% | 0.1453 | -130 |
| Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Miami Marlins | 38.83% | 0.0871 | +180 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | Chicago Cubs | 71.07% | 0.3574 | -110 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 60.36% | 0.1046 | -120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | 62.22% | 0.4000 | +125 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals | 49.18% | 0.1065 | +125 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies | San Francisco Giants | 48.72% | 0.0718 | +120 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | Washington Nationals | 59.78% | 0.4347 | +140 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves | Detroit Tigers | 60.17% | 0.0048 | -150 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64.12% | 0.2824 | +100 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics | Kansas City Royals | 56.59% | 0.1035 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Expected Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.64% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 55.43% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners | 52.87% |
| New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers | New York Yankees | 53.94% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 64.71% |
| Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.17% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | Chicago Cubs | 71.07% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 60.36% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | 62.22% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.82% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.28% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | Washington Nationals | 59.78% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves | Detroit Tigers | 60.17% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64.12% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics | Kansas City Royals | 56.59% |
