Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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  • 7/28/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Colorado Rockies ML +220
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +115
    • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -150
    • Kansas City Royals ML +140
    • Chicago White Sox ML +180
    • Milwaukee Brewers ML -105
    • Washington Nationals ML +225
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +165

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.14%0.0361-105
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies43.47%0.3910+220
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks68.12%0.4645+115
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays47.22%-0.0084+110
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Dodgers70.52%0.1777-150
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox52.23%-0.0234-115
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals68.63%0.6471+140
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.11%0.4030+180
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers58.46%0.1399-105
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals53.93%0.0085-115
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals46.32%0.5054+225
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels47.76%0.2655+165
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresNew York Mets47.20%-0.0088+110
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates47.09%-0.0110+110
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics48.86%-0.0227+100

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.14%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians56.53%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks68.12%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees52.78%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Dodgers70.52%
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox52.23%
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals68.63%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.11%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers58.46%
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals53.93%
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros53.68%
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers52.24%
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres52.80%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants52.91%
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsSeattle Mariners51.14%

  • 7/27/25 Recap

    Very mediocre day today. Had a ton of picks, but even the higher probability ones like the Cardinals failed to hit. I don’t even want to talk about the Giants game; they had so many opportunities to win but choked all of them. And well, the Mets have swept them now.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 5/10
    Net Units: -0.38u
    ROI: -3.80%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 47/94
    Sportsbook favorites won: 43/94
    Picks won: 23/44
    Net Units: +3.05u
    ROI: 6.93%

  • 7/27/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Colorado Rockies ML +170
    • Boston Red Sox ML -105
    • New York Yankees ML +115
    • Cincinnati Reds ML -105
    • Detroit Tigers ML -120
    • Kansas City Royals ML -135
    • Chicago White Sox ML +140
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML -130
    • Atlanta Braves ML +105
    • San Francisco Giants ML +105

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies49.48%0.3359+170
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox55.84%0.0889-105
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks44.81%0.0307+130
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees55.68%0.1970+115
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds56.32%0.0982-105
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers59.96%0.0973-120
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals71.99%0.2526-135
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosOakland Athletics48.39%0.0404+115
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins60.11%-0.0322-165
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox59.10%0.4184+140
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMiami Marlins45.26%0.0862+140
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.60%0.1966-130
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersAtlanta Braves58.02%0.1894+105
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels47.40%0.1377+140
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants60.13%0.2326+105

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles50.52%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox55.84%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates55.19%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees55.68%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds56.32%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers59.96%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals71.99%
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros51.61%
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins60.11%
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox59.10%
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers54.74%
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.60%
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersAtlanta Braves58.02%
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners52.60%
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants60.13%

  • 7/26/25 Recap

    Horrendous day today. I think this is my worst day to date. Last Saturday being a good day deceived me into thinking Saturdays were not cursed, but I’m back to having horrible Saturdays. On a similar note, I also seem to be cursed whenever there is a double-header. Honestly, the situation for a double header makes the teams play differently and they are often decently tired by the second match, so in the future, I may only bet on the first of the double-header matches or avoid them entirely.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 6/16
    Sportsbook favorites won: 7/16
    Picks won: 2/7
    Net Units: -3.35u
    ROI: -48.86%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 39/79
    Sportsbook favorites won: 35/79
    Picks won: 18/34
    Net Units: +3.43u
    ROI: 10.09%

  • 7/26/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • New York Yankees ML +110
    • Kansas City Royals ML -115
    • Cincinnati Reds ML -125
    • Colorado Rockies ML +220
    • Atlanta Braves ML +100
    • Kansas City Royals ML -135
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +110

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees54.35%0.1414+110
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.22%0.2066-115
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers63.27%0.0060-170
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks61.80%0.0754-135
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds65.81%0.1845-125
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies45.34%0.4509+220
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersAtlanta Braves55.95%0.1078+100
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros64.87%-0.0010-185
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins67.74%-0.0245-225
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox43.24%0.1458+165
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers68.27%0.0855-170
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals70.85%0.2328-135
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox64.83%0.0956-145
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres46.26%0.0085+120
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets52.56%0.0406+100
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels58.74%0.2335+110

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees54.35%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.22%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers63.27%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks61.80%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds65.81%
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles54.66%
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersAtlanta Braves55.95%
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros64.87%
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins67.74%
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago Cubs56.76%
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers68.27%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals70.85%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox64.83%
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals53.74%
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets52.56%
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels58.74%

  • 7/25/25 Recap

    Pretty bad day for my model and the sportsbook, but my picks still hit. The Rockies and Phillies were excellent +EV picks that went against my model but were close to 50%. It seems my model is decently calibrated now. Unfortunately, Guardians vs Royals has been postponed to tomorrow.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 5/14
    Sportsbook favorites won: 5/14
    Picks won: 4/6
    Net Units: +3.01u
    ROI: 50.17%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 33/63
    Sportsbook favorites won: 28/63
    Picks won: 16/27
    Net Units: +6.78u
    ROI: 25.11%

  • 7/25/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Colorado Rockies ML +180
    • Philadelphia Phillies ML +125
    • Boston Red Sox ML +100
    • Cincinnati Reds ML -110
    • Kansas City Royals ML -115
    • Washington Nationals ML +140
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +105

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMiami Marlins35.73%-0.0354+170
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks56.62%0.0815-110
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies46.52%0.3024+180
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesPhiladelphia Phillies49.68%0.1178+125
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox64.57%0.2913+100
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds61.11%0.1672-110
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays52.92%0.0319-105
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals47.60%-0.0004+110
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox39.68%-0.0081+150
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers64.83%0.0697-155
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.01%0.2158-115
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros60.87%0.0409-140
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsWashington Nationals54.78%0.3146+140
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels56.09%0.1498+105
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets45.75%-0.0165+115

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers64.27%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks56.62%
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.48%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees50.32%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox64.57%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds61.11%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays52.92%
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres52.40%
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago Cubs60.32%
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers64.83%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.01%
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros60.87%
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsWashington Nationals54.78%
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels56.09%
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants54.25%

  • 7/24/25 Recap

    Very strong day today. Only had two picks today, but both of them hit.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 3/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/4
    Picks won: 2/2
    Net Units: +2.33u
    ROI: 116.50%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 28/49
    Sportsbook favorites won: 23/49
    Picks won: 12/21
    Net Units: +3.77u
    ROI: 17.95%

  • 7/24/25 Baseball Picks

    Sorry that I missed the Orioles vs Guardians match today. Not a lot of matches today overall though.

    My Picks

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +115
    • Oakland Athletics ML +120

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays52.12%0.1205+115
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.77%0.0482-150
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosOakland Athletics51.29%0.1181+120
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels59.71%-0.0028-150

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays52.12%
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.77%
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosOakland Athletics51.29%
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels59.71%

  • 7/23/25 Recap

    Slightly positive day today. Stressful as hell though. The first 3 bets missed, and Red Sox and White Sox games were down to the wire. I almost thought I would miss all my bets today. Anyways, horrible day for both my favorites and the sportsbook’s favorites.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 5/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +0.66u
    ROI: 11.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 25/45
    Sportsbook favorites won: 22/45
    Picks won: 10/19
    Net Units: +1.44u
    ROI: 7.58%