Bayesball Picks

Third Day of Testing Period

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Chicago White Sox ML +110, 7.5%
• Toronto Blue Jays ML -130, 10%
• Chicago Cubs ML -110, 20%
• Colorado Rockies ML +125, 16%
• Washington Nationals ML +140, 15%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 14%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	54.64%	0.0928	+100
Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	55.43%	0.1641	+110
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	47.13%	-0.0103	+110
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers	New York Yankees	53.94%	-0.0129	-120
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	64.71%	0.1453	-130
Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Miami Marlins	38.83%	0.0871	+180
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres	Chicago Cubs	71.07%	0.3574	-110
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	60.36%	0.1046	-120
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	Colorado Rockies	62.22%	0.4000	+125
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	St. Louis Cardinals	49.18%	0.1065	+125
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies	San Francisco Giants	48.72%	0.0718	+120
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	Washington Nationals	59.78%	0.4347	+140
Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves	Detroit Tigers	60.17%	0.0048	-150
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers	Arizona Diamondbacks	64.12%	0.2824	+100
Kansas City Royals vs Athletics	Kansas City Royals	56.59%	0.1035	-105

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Expected Winner	Probability
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	54.64%
Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	55.43%
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	Seattle Mariners	52.87%
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers	New York Yankees	53.94%
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	64.71%
Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	61.17%
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres	Chicago Cubs	71.07%
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	60.36%
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds	Colorado Rockies	62.22%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	50.82%
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	51.28%
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	Washington Nationals	59.78%
Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves	Detroit Tigers	60.17%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers	Arizona Diamondbacks	64.12%
Kansas City Royals vs Athletics	Kansas City Royals	56.59%