Seventh Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 8%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +190, 4%
- Miami Marlins ML +125, 5.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML +105, 6%
- Chicago White Sox ML +155, 9%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.89% | 0.1386 | -115 |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Houston Astros | 44.38% | 0.0650 | +140 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.89% | 0.0045 | -120 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 40.14% | 0.1641 | +190 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.06% | 0.0099 | -140 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.72% | 0.0393 | -130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.61% | 0.1387 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.30% | -0.0147 | -145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.06% | 0.0813 | +145 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 44.08% | 0.0799 | +145 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 58.76% | 0.0753 | -120 |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.30% | 0.0562 | +110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Kansas City Royals | 54.73% | 0.1220 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% | 0.2750 | +155 |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.33% | -0.0424 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.89% |
| Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 55.62% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.89% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 59.86% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.06% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.72% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.61% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.30% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.94% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | Atlanta Braves | 55.92% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 58.76% |
| New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.30% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners | Kansas City Royals | 54.73% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 50.00% |
| Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.33% |
*Missing Brewers starting pitcher
Bayesball Picks 
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