Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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  • 7/23/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Washington Nationals ML +110
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML -125
    • Seattle Mariners ML -135
    • Boston Red Sox ML +125
    • Chicago White Sox ML +170
    • Texas Rangers ML -140

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals53.27%0.1188+110
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins48.17%0.0839+125
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves60.62%-0.0180-160
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates47.39%0.0188+115
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsNew York Mets65.97%0.0292-180
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsKansas City Royals48.51%0.1642+140
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies40.08%0.0021+150
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks61.67%0.1100-125
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.14%0.2031-135
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers67.58%-0.0201-220
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians58.83%0.0413-130
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox55.37%0.2458+125
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees52.52%0.0207+115
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox 47.65%0.2865+170
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers66.09%0.1301-140

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals53.27%
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres51.83%
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves60.62%
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers52.61%
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsNew York Mets65.97%
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs51.49%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals59.92%
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks61.67%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.14%
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers67.58%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians58.83%
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox55.37%
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees52.52%
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays52.35%
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers66.09%

  • 7/22/25 Recap

    Slightly down day today. Unfortunately, neither of my riskier bets managed to hit, and somehow the Cardinals lost against the Rockies.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 4/8
    Net Units: -0.66u
    ROI: -8.25%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 20/30
    Sportsbook favorites won: 17/30
    Picks won: 7/13
    Net Units: +0.78u
    ROI: 6.00%

  • 7/22/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Cleveland Guardians ML -170
    • Miami Marlins ML -125
    • Washington Nationals ML +120
    • Boston Red Sox ML +180
    • Chicago White Sox ML +190
    • Atlanta Braves ML -115
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML -170
    • Seattle Mariners ML -125

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians71.52%0.1372-170
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates47.32%-0.0063+110
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins66.72%0.2010-125
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals68.98%0.5037+120
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox45.55%0.2755+180
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox46.70%0.3543+190
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.66%0.0552-120
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsLos Angeles Angels40.73%-0.0022+145
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves59.02%0.1037-115
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsKansas City Royals34.31%0.0638+210
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersOakland Athletics32.57%-0.0391+195
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals71.39%0.1351-170
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksHouston Astros57.48%0.0174-130
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners65.57%0.1803-125
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersMinnesota Twins36.35%0.0542+190

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians71.52%
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers52.68%
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins66.72%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals68.98%
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies54.45%
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays53.30%
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.66%
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsNew York Mets59.27%
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves59.02%
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs65.69%
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers67.43%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals71.39%
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksHouston Astros57.48%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners65.57%
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.65%

  • 7/21/25 Recap

    Fairly good day today. Pretty good start to the week, especially considering the lack of high-quality picks I had today.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/5
    Net Units: +1.44u
    ROI: 28.80%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/5
    Net Units: +1.44u
    ROI: 28.80%

  • 7/21/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Miami Marlins ML -145
    • Washington Nationals ML +105
    • Chicago White Sox ML +190
    • Seattle Mariners ML -115
    • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -185

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians64.17%0.0716-150
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates60.46%0.0882-125
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins66.26%0.1198-145
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals62.65%0.2843+105
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies66.19%-0.0403-220
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.70%0.0237-105
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsLos Angeles Angels39.60%-0.0497+140
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves55.14%-0.0075-125
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox48.22%0.3985+190
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsKansas City Royals46.88%0.0548+125
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersOakland Athletics47.00%-0.0365+105
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals66.82%0.1159-150
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks56.72%-0.0415-145
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners62.54%0.1694-115
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers71.78%0.1054-185

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians64.17%
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates60.46%
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins66.26%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals62.65%
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies66.19%
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.70%
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsNew York Mets60.40%
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves55.14%
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays51.78%
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs53.12%
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers53.00%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals66.82%
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks56.72%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners62.54%
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers71.78%

  • 7/20/25 Recap

    Not a great day today, but not as horrible as the first two Saturdays. Was bound for a loss after having such wins lately.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 2/5
    Net Units: -0.77u
    ROI: -15.40%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 25/45
    Sportsbook favorites won: 23/45
    Picks won: 11/19
    Net Units: +4.74u
    ROI: 24.95%

  • 7/20/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Washington Nationals ML +100
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +140
    • Atlanta Braves ML -130
    • Kansas City Royals ML -120
    • Texas Rangers ML +150

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays54.31%0.0048-115
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays60.74%0.0934-125
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals61.76%0.2229+100
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels47.86%0.1486+140
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox47.79%0.0275+115
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves63.43%0.1227-130
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets56.14%-0.0231-135
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians52.72%0.0070-110
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsKansas City Royals76.95%0.4081-120
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox58.17%0.0122-135
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies32.17%-0.0350+200
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersHouston Astros49.69%0.0683+115
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks66.10%0.1038-150
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers60.53%0.0109-150
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers46.84%0.1709+150

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays54.31%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays60.74%
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals61.76%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies52.14%
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates52.21%
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves63.43%
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets56.14%
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians52.72%
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsKansas City Royals76.95%
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox58.17%
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesMinnesota Twins67.83%
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners50.31%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks66.10%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers60.53%
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersDetroit Tigers53.16%

  • 7/19/25 Recap

    Pretty solid day today. Had a ton of decent probability picks today and they delivered. Could’ve had an extra win though if the Braves didn’t absolutely choke that 5-0 lead. Mariners did clutch up though which balances that out a little. Turns out Saturdays may not be as cursed as I had thought. Notably though, the sportsbook favorites were awful today.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 6/8
    Net Units: +4.62u
    ROI: 57.75%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 17/30
    Sportsbook favorites won: 14/30
    Picks won: 9/14
    Net Units: +5.51u
    ROI: 39.36%

  • 7/19/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +105
    • Miami Marlins ML +100
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +115
    • Washington Nationals ML +115
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100
    • Atlanta Braves ML +110
    • Colorado Rockies ML +165
    • Seattle Mariners ML -130

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays60.33%0.2368+105
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsCincinnati Reds40.87%0.0218+150
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins57.38%0.1475+100
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels58.25%0.2524+115
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox48.27%0.0378+115
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals61.50%0.3222+115
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays58.00%0.0265-130
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersDetroit Tigers49.68%-0.0313-105
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians56.04%-0.0417-140
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.84%-0.0007-150
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks64.61%0.2922+100
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves63.65%0.3367+110
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies50.29%0.3327+165
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.88%0.0923-140
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.27%0.2262-130

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays60.33%
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets59.13%
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins57.38%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels58.25%
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates51.73%
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals61.50%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays58.00%
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers50.32%
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians56.04%
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.84%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks64.61%
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves63.65%
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies50.29%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.88%
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.27%

  • 7/18/25 Recap

    Alright day today. Solid odds on my bets, so ended up with a good return even though I went 3/6 on picks. Glad that baseball and betting is back. Technically the start of this week of betting given the long All Stars delay.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +0.89u
    ROI: 14.83%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +0.89u
    ROI: 14.83%