Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 4/28/26 Recap

      Pretty solid day. Marlins actually clutched up this time.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 9/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
      Picks won: 5/8
      Net Units: +2.94u
      ROI: 36.75%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 12/23
      Sportsbook favorites won: 13/23
      Picks won: 6/10
      Net Units: +3.14u
      ROI: 31.40%

    • 4/28/26 Baseball Picks

      Second Day of Testing Period

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Tampa Bay Rays ML +110, 7.5%
      • Baltimore Orioles ML -135, 16%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +165, 13.5%
      • San Francisco Giants ML +125, 16%
      • Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 6%
      • Washington Nationals ML +155, 7%
      • Chicago Cubs ML -120, 10%
      • Miami Marlins ML +240, 5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays55.51%0.1656+110
      Houston Astros vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles71.19%0.2387-135
      Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies54.67%0.4488+165
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals42.42%-0.0242+130
      San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia PhilliesSan Francisco Giants62.47%0.4057+125
      Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays59.39%0.1105-115
      Washington Nationals vs New York MetsWashington Nationals50.00%0.2700+155
      Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta BravesDetroit Tigers50.00%0.0250+105
      Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins51.55%0.0567+105
      Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.00%0.0500+110
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers59.31%0.0498-130
      New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees57.29%0.0484-120
      Kansas City Royals vs Athletics*Kansas City Royals51.24%-0.0419-115
      Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs64.56%0.1815-120
      Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins36.43%0.2385+240

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays55.51%
      Houston Astros vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles71.19%
      Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies54.67%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates57.58%
      San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia PhilliesSan Francisco Giants62.47%
      Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays59.39%
      Washington Nationals vs New York MetsNew York Mets50.00%
      Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta BravesDetroit Tigers50.00%
      Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins51.55%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.00%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers59.31%
      New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees57.29%
      Kansas City Royals vs Athletics*Kansas City Royals51.24%
      Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs64.56%
      Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.57%

      *Missing starting pitcher data for Athletics

    • 4/27/26 Recap

      Marlins choked, which kinda sucks, but still have a positive day.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 3/8
      Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8
      Picks won: 1/2
      Net Units: +0.20u
      ROI: 10%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 3/8
      Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8
      Picks won: 1/2
      Net Units: +0.20u
      ROI: 10%

    • 4/27/26 Baseball Picks

      First Day of Testing Period

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Minnesota Twins ML +120, 8%
      • Miami Marlins ML +230, 6%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays46.49%0.0135+120
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals46.15%-0.0309+110
      Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays60.53%0.0351-140
      Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins50.00%0.0900+120
      Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox 48.21%-0.0358+100
      New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees62.58%-0.0363-185
      Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs52.54%0.0034-110
      Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins34.53%0.1394+230

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians53.51%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates53.85%
      Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays60.53%
      Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins50.00%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxLos Angeles Angels51.79%
      New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees62.58%
      Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs52.54%
      Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers65.47%

    • Bayesball Season Is Back!

      I’ll begin with some testing for a couple of weeks before starting to bet with the model again. I think the testing will start around 4/27.

    • 11/1/25 Recap

      Unfortunately, the Dodgers won the World Series. My model was surprisingly solid for the postseason, though I did miss a few of the earlier matches. Although it was a low sample size, hopefully this means my model is effective for the postseason as well. Anyways, baseball season is over, so see y’all next year.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 1/1
      Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
      Picks won: 0/0
      Net Units: 0.00u
      ROI: 0.00%

      Post-Season Stats:

      Model favorites won: 24/36
      Sportsbook favorites won: 22/36
      Picks won: 14/25
      Net Units: +4.48u
      ROI: 17.92%

    • 11/1/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • No picks

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays44.62%-0.0406+120

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Dodgers55.38%

    • 10/31/25 Recap

      Dodgers probably end up winning the World Series again.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 1/1
      Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
      Picks won: 0/1
      Net Units: -1.00u
      ROI: -100.00%

      Post-Season Stats:

      Model favorites won: 23/35
      Sportsbook favorites won: 21/35
      Picks won: 14/25
      Net Units: +4.48u
      ROI: 17.92%

    • 10/31/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Toronto Blue Jays ML +120, 5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays50.00%0.1000+120

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Dodgers50.00%

    • 10/29/25 Recap

      Jays are back to home to hopefully close it out

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 0/1
      Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
      Picks won: 1/1
      Net Units: +1.70u
      ROI: 170.00%

      Post-Season Stats:

      Model favorites won: 22/34
      Sportsbook favorites won: 20/34
      Picks won: 14/24
      Net Units: +5.48u
      ROI: 22.83%