Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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  • 7/18/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Boston Red Sox ML +115
    • Washington Nationals ML +120
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +180
    • New York Yankees ML +115
    • Colorado Rockies ML +135
    • Seattle Mariners ML -135

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox56.44%0.2135+115
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox44.99%0.0797+140
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals56.65%0.2349+120
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels59.69%0.6713+180
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysSan Francisco Giants46.32%0.0422+125
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets59.94%0.0010-150
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians57.13%0.0112-130
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins53.14%0.0627+100
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees52.68%0.1326+115
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays55.82%0.0048-125
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersDetroit Tigers52.40%0.0009-110
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies54.01%0.2692+135
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks60.48%0.0706-130
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners67.71%0.1781-135
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers39.06%-0.0079+155

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox56.44%
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates55.01%
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals56.65%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels59.69%
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays53.68%
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets59.94%
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians57.13%
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins53.14%
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees52.68%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays55.82%
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersDetroit Tigers52.40%
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies54.01%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks60.48%
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners67.71%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers60.94%

  • No Picks Until Friday (7/18)

    This week is MLB All-Star Week, so there are no regular games until Friday. Unfortunately, that means no picks or gambling until Friday.

  • 7/13/25 Recap

    Model performed pretty well today and closed this week out with a bang. Unfortunately, the White Sox choked, and Steven Kwan clutched up to finish them off in the 10th. Otherwise, all the matches went pretty much as expected. Athletics were surprisingly dominant today. Given the Jay’s recent dominance, I thought it might go against my model, but the Athletics played solid baseball.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 4/6
    Net Units: +2.45u
    ROI: 40.83%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 52/91
    Sportsbook favorites won: 49/91
    Picks won: 20/37
    Net Units: +5.02u
    ROI: 13.57%

  • 7/13/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +100
    • Chicago Cubs ML +105
    • Kansas City Royals ML +100
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135
    • Chicago White Sox ML +120
    • Oakland Athletics ML +105

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays57.15%0.1431+100
    Miami Marlins vs Baltimore OriolesMiami Marlins49.33%-0.0133+100
    Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesChicago Cubs69.16%0.4178+105
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies41.74%0.2522+200
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.42%0.0364-115
    New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals59.92%0.1984+100
    Texas Rangers vs Houston AstrosTexas Rangers46.69%0.0271+120
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates51.01%0.1987+135
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox66.58%0.4649+120
    Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals35.71%0.1783+230
    Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves47.71%0.1688+145
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants46.64%0.0260+120
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics56.83%0.1651+105
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles AngelsArizona Diamondbacks53.92%0.0299-110
    Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies60.40%0.0328-140

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays57.15%
    Miami Marlins vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles50.67%
    Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesChicago Cubs69.16%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds58.26%
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.42%
    New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals59.92%
    Texas Rangers vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros53.31%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates51.01%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox66.58%
    Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers64.29%
    Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals52.29%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers53.36%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics56.83%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles AngelsArizona Diamondbacks53.92%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies60.40%

  • 7/12/25 Recap

    Horrible day today, like last Saturday. I’m not superstitious or anything, but I’m starting to think Saturdays may be cursed for my model or something. It is, however, also notable that the Braves were still missing starting pitcher information an hour before the game. I assume that some of the other probable starting pitchers were also possibly not set in stone, which would have a big effect on my model’s performance.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 6/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 1/5
    Net Units: -2.70u
    ROI: -54.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 42/76
    Sportsbook favorites won: 41/76
    Picks won: 16/31
    Net Units: +2.57u
    ROI: 8.29%

  • 7/12/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +115
    • Kansas City Royals ML +110
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +160
    • Chicago White Sox +135
    • Oakland Athletics ML +130

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesChicago Cubs45.15%0.0610+135
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers58.90%0.0602-125
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates51.06%0.0978+115
    Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals55.61%0.0621-110
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers61.48%-0.0347-175
    Miami Marlins vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles69.43%0.0830-180
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds39.20%0.3722+250
    New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals60.37%0.2678+110
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays51.14%0.3298+160
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox69.24%0.6272+135
    Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals31.14%0.0120+225
    Texas Rangers vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros50.14%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres39.77%-0.0257+145
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels52.17%-0.0244-115
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics59.33%0.3646+130

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees54.85%
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers58.90%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates51.06%
    Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals55.61%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers61.48%
    Miami Marlins vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles69.43%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds60.80%
    New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals60.37%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays51.14%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox69.24%
    Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers68.86%
    Texas Rangers vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros50.14%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies60.23%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels52.17%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics59.33%

  • 7/11/25 Recap

    I went 3/6 on picks today, but since all the picks today had good odds, I ended up with a solid profit today. It was kind of funny to see how few people there were at the earlier White Sox game today.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/16
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +1.70u
    ROI: 28.33%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 36/61
    Sportsbook favorites won: 32/61
    Picks won: 15/26
    Net Units: +5.27u
    ROI: 20.27%

  • 7/11/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Chicago White Sox ML +105
    • Colorado Rockies ML +200
    • Chicago White Sox ML +125
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +115
    • San Diego Padres ML +145
    • Oakland Athletics ML +150

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox71.86%0.4731+105
    Miami Marlins vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles59.90%0.0123-145
    Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesChicago Cubs44.06%0.0574+140
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies54.99%0.6498+200
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners38.11%0.2767+235
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays53.28%0.0390-105
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox65.01%0.4628+125
    New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsNew York Mets57.34%-0.0195-140
    Texas Rangers vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros60.94%0.0970-125
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates54.97%0.1819+115
    Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals34.58%-0.0144+185
    Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves52.91%0.0583+100
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels49.55%-0.0338-105
    Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres56.67%0.3884+145
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics58.91%0.4728+150
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants60.62%0.0731-130

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox71.86%
    Miami Marlins vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles59.90%
    Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees55.94%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies54.99%
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers61.89%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays53.28%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox65.01%
    New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsNew York Mets57.34%
    Texas Rangers vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros60.94%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates54.97%
    Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers65.42%
    Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves52.91%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles AngelsArizona Diamondbacks50.45%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres56.67%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics58.91%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants60.62%

  • 7/10/25 Recap

    Although today was a positive day. it felt pretty awful since both Rays and Mariners should have won, especially the Mariners. Honestly, their chokejob was impressive. White Sox match got postponed, so we’ll see how it goes tomorrow. The prediction may change though.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 6/10
    Sportsbook favorites won: 4/10
    Picks won: 3/5
    Net Units: +1.50u
    ROI: 30.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 27/45
    Sportsbook favorites won: 23/45
    Picks won: 12/20
    Net Units: +3.57u
    ROI: 17.85%

  • 7/10/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Seattle Mariners ML -120
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +100
    • Chicago White Sox ML +105
    • Oakland Athletics ML +160
    • Texas Rangers ML +115
    • San Diego Padres ML -105

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets58.26%-0.0271-150
    Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs56.90%-0.0270-140
    New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets63.60%0.0748-145
    Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds65.40%0.0072-185
    Seattle Mariners vs New York YankeesSeattle Mariners59.59%0.0904-120
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays51.48%0.0295+100
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox69.96%0.4344+105
    Washington Nationals vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals63.07%0.0536-150
    Atlanta Braves vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics50.10%0.3026+160
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers52.58%0.1306+115
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres56.72%0.1060-105

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets58.26%
    Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs56.90%
    New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets63.60%
    Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds65.40%
    Seattle Mariners vs New York YankeesSeattle Mariners59.59%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays51.48%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox69.96%
    Washington Nationals vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals63.07%
    Atlanta Braves vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics50.10%
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers52.58%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres56.72%