Bayesball Picks

Pretty rough day today. I made a pretty big mistake missing the first few matches, since Brewers had pretty good odds and probability last night. I might switch to posting the matchups early on, then updating the ones that start later the day a few hours before they begin.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 4/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/10
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -1.35u
ROI: -45.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 21/35
Sportsbook favorites won: 19/35
Picks won: 9/15
Net Units: +2.07u
ROI: 13.8%

Mets and Giants had me sweating today. Pretty good day overall. Mariners was a true disasterclass. They lost all their steam after the game got delayed.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +1.01u
ROI: 16.83%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 17/25
Sportsbook favorites won: 14/25
Picks won: 8/12
Net Units: +3.42u
ROI: 28.5%

Great day today for my model and a strong start to the week. Getting the probable starting pitcher info in the morning is far more reliable than the pulling them the night before. As such, my picks and results should be more consistent and in line with my model’s performance. I have significantly higher favorites won today than the sportsbooks. It seems like I am consistently outperforming the sportsbook anyways, but today I had a really solid difference.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 7/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/10
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +2.41u
ROI: 40.17%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 7/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/10
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +2.41u
ROI: 40.17%

Absolute disaster day today. I’m going to go ahead with making my picks early morning instead of the night before since the probable starting pitchers were quite inaccurate last night. With the updated probable pitchers in the morning, my model heavily favored the Red Sox, which sucked especially since Nationals was one of my picks with insane EV. It also led the Brewers to be favored over the Marlins, another one of my picks. Unfortunately, I close this week with a loss, but hopefully after getting picks in the morning, my results will be more consistent.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.65u
ROI: -53.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 30/55
Sportsbook favorites won: 28/55
Picks won: 9/20
Net Units: -1.19u
ROI: -5.95%

I made a mistake while fetching the matchups yesterday so some of the starting pitchers were off, which screwed with some of the predictions. Mostly, the predicted teams were the same though, with the exception of the Athletics, which was unfortunately one of my picks.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -0.7u
ROI: -14%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 23/40
Sportsbook favorites won: 20/40
Picks won: 8/15
Net Units: +1.46u
ROI: +9.73%