Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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  • 7/4/25 Recap

    Today was a pretty good day. Brewers and Twins had me sweating until the end though.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 4/5
    Net Units: +3.06u, ROI: +61.20%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 15/25
    Sportsbook favorites won: 13/25
    Picks won: 6/10
    Net Units: +2.16u, ROI: +21.6%

  • 7/4/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Cincinnati Reds ML +140
    • New York Mets ML -105
    • Minnesota Twins ML -110
    • Milwaukee Brewers ML -125
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML -115

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV PickProbabilityEVOdds
    Boston Red Sox vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals53.75%0.0481-105
    Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds51.55%0.2372+140
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals40.36%-0.0515+135
    New York Yankees vs New York MetsNew York Mets67.77%0.3215-105
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners64.70%-0.0360-205
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins57.03%0.0893-110
    Texas Rangers vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres58.90%0.0425-130
    Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays58.67%-0.0202-150
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers58.25%0.0485-125
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers61.41%0.1054-125
    Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta BravesBaltimore Orioles42.55%0.0851+155
    Chicago White Sox vs Colorado RockiesChicago White Sox54.57%-0.0342-130
    Houston Astros vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers66.50%0.0041-195
    Kansas City Royals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks58.97%0.1028-115
    San Francisco Giants vs Oakland AthleticsSan Francisco Giants52.63%-0.0157-115

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Boston Red Sox vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals53.75%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds51.55%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.64%
    New York Yankees vs New York MetsNew York Mets67.77%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners64.70%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins57.03%
    Texas Rangers vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres58.90%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays58.67%
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers58.25%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers61.41%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves57.45%
    Chicago White Sox vs Colorado RockiesChicago White Sox54.57%
    Houston Astros vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers66.50%
    Kansas City Royals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks58.97%
    San Francisco Giants vs Oakland AthleticsSan Francisco Giants52.63%

  • 7/3/25 Recap

    Yankees loss stung quite a bit since it was predicted to have high probability to win.

    Model favorites won: 5/10
    Sportsbook favorites won: 4/10
    Picks won: 2/5
    Net Units: -0.90u, ROI: -18%

  • 7/3/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Miami Marlins ML +100
    • New York Yankees ML -135
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +110
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100
    • Seattle Mariners ML -160

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV)
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV PickProbabilityEVOdds
    Minnesota Twins vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins56.31%0.1263+100
    Houston Astros vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies45.20%0.1516+155
    Detroit Tigers vs Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers65.85%0.0601-165
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees66.05%0.1492-135
    Milwaukee Brewers vs New York MetsNew York Mets63.55%0.0295-160
    Los Angeles Angels vs Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Angels56.15%0.1791+110
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago CubsCleveland Guardians42.04%-0.0120+135
    San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks53.03%0.0605+100
    Kansas City Royals vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners67.49%0.0866-160
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles DodgersChicago White Sox37.19%0.2643+240

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Minnesota Twins vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins56.31%
    Houston Astros vs Colorado RockiesHouston Astros54.80%
    Detroit Tigers vs Washington NationalsDetroit Tigers65.85%
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees66.05%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs New York MetsNew York Mets63.55%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Angels56.15%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs57.96%
    San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks53.03%
    Kansas City Royals vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners67.49%
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers62.81%

    Model Stats:
    Used 1,141 total games with an 80/20 train-test split
    Train accuracy: 67.98%
    Test accuracy: 63.32%
    Test recall: 85.34%
    Test precision: 59.64%