Second Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +110, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML -135, 16%
- Colorado Rockies ML +165, 13.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML +125, 16%
- Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 6%
- Washington Nationals ML +155, 7%
- Chicago Cubs ML -120, 10%
- Miami Marlins ML +240, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.51% | 0.1656 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 71.19% | 0.2387 | -135 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | 54.67% | 0.4488 | +165 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.42% | -0.0242 | +130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies | San Francisco Giants | 62.47% | 0.4057 | +125 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 59.39% | 0.1105 | -115 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | Washington Nationals | 50.00% | 0.2700 | +155 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves | Detroit Tigers | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 51.55% | 0.0567 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% | 0.0500 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.31% | 0.0498 | -130 |
| New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers | New York Yankees | 57.29% | 0.0484 | -120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics* | Kansas City Royals | 51.24% | -0.0419 | -115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | Chicago Cubs | 64.56% | 0.1815 | -120 |
| Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Miami Marlins | 36.43% | 0.2385 | +240 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.51% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 71.19% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | 54.67% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.58% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies | San Francisco Giants | 62.47% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 59.39% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 50.00% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves | Detroit Tigers | 50.00% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 51.55% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.31% |
| New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers | New York Yankees | 57.29% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics* | Kansas City Royals | 51.24% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | Chicago Cubs | 64.56% |
| Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.57% |
*Missing starting pitcher data for Athletics
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