Bayesball Picks

First Day of Testing Period

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Minnesota Twins ML +120, 8%
• Miami Marlins ML +230, 6%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	46.49%	0.0135	+120
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	St. Louis Cardinals	46.15%	-0.0309	+110
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	60.53%	0.0351	-140
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	50.00%	0.0900	+120
Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	48.21%	-0.0358	+100
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers	New York Yankees	62.58%	-0.0363	-185
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres	Chicago Cubs	52.54%	0.0034	-110
Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Miami Marlins	34.53%	0.1394	+230

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	53.51%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	53.85%
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	60.53%
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	50.00%
Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox	Los Angeles Angels	51.79%
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers	New York Yankees	62.58%
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres	Chicago Cubs	52.54%
Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	65.47%