Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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  • 8/2/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Washington Nationals ML +155
    • New York Mets ML -200
    • Seattle Mariners ML -120
    • Miami Marlins ML +100
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +105
    • Oakland Athletics ML -110
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +125

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays50.87%0.0073+100
    Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago CubsBaltimore Orioles35.34%-0.0105+180
    Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals48.23%0.0610+120
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies38.14%0.0680+180
    Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies53.56%0.0230-110
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals51.14%0.3041+155
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox55.14%0.0312-115
    San Francisco Giants vs New York MetsNew York Mets73.95%0.1093-200
    Texas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners61.90%0.1328-120
    Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians61.94%-0.0275-175
    New York Yankees vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins69.18%0.3836+100
    Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds52.22%0.0704+105
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics66.14%0.2633-110
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox46.42%0.0444+125
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals58.87%0.3246+125

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays50.87%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs64.66%
    Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.77%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado RockiesPittsburgh Pirates61.86%
    Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies53.56%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals51.14%
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox55.14%
    San Francisco Giants vs New York MetsNew York Mets73.95%
    Texas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners61.90%
    Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians61.94%
    New York Yankees vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins69.18%
    Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds52.22%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics66.14%
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels53.58%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals58.87%

  • 8/1/25 Recap

    Quite a bad start to the new month. Not much else to say, it was just a pretty bad day.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/7
    Net Units: -1.96u
    ROI: -28.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 30/64
    Sportsbook favorites won: 31/64
    Picks won: 21/36
    Net Units: +8.30u
    ROI: 23.06%

  • 8/1/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Cincinnati Reds ML -140
    • Washington Nationals ML +130
    • New York Mets ML -145
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +110
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +150
    • Oakland Athletics ML -125
    • Seattle Mariners ML -190

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilitiesEVOdds
    Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds68.79%0.1763-140
    Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago CubsBaltimore Orioles47.70%0.0971+130
    Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies59.17%-0.0118-150
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals54.89%0.2626+130
    Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals43.01%-0.0107+130
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox50.20%0.0290+105
    San Francisco Giants vs New York MetsNew York Mets65.68%0.1099-145
    Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins50.66%0.0386+105
    New York Yankees vs Miami MarlinsNew York Yankees70.09%0.1004-175
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays56.93%0.1956+110
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies47.01%0.0108+115
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox43.97%-0.0414+120
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals46.41%0.1602+150
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics63.47%0.1425-125
    Texas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners75.79%0.1596-190

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilities
    Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds68.79%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs52.30%
    Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies59.17%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals54.89%
    Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays56.99%
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox50.20%
    San Francisco Giants vs New York MetsNew York Mets65.68%
    Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins50.66%
    New York Yankees vs Miami MarlinsNew York Yankees70.09%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays56.93%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado RockiesPittsburgh Pirates52.99%
    Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels56.03%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres53.59%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics63.47%
    Texas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners75.79%

  • 7/31/25 Recap

    Pretty bad day today, though there weren’t that many picks to matter. Reds loss was pretty heartbreaking given the massive 8 run comeback they had.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/3
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/3
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: -0.44u
    ROI: -22.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 23/49
    Sportsbook favorites won: 23/49
    Picks won: 18/29
    Net Units: +10.26u
    ROI: 35.38%

  • 7/31/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Cincinnati Reds ML -185
    • Seattle Mariners ML -180

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays53.34%-0.0132-115
    Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds69.45%0.0696-185
    Texas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.56%0.0852-180

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays53.34%
    Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds69.45%
    Texas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.56%

  • 7/30/25 Recap

    Really solid day today. Rays vs Yankees was cinema towards the end of the game. Unfortunately, said cinema is why the Rays lost.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 5/7
    Net Units: +3.33u
    ROI: 47.57%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 22/46
    Sportsbook favorites won: 22/46
    Picks won: 17/27
    Net Units: +10.7u
    ROI: 39.63%

  • 7/30/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +105
    • Boston Red Sox ML +100
    • Kansas City Royals ML -120
    • Chicago White Sox ML +120
    • New York Mets ML -110
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +115
    • Oakland Athletics ML +125

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays64.65%0.3254+105
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks50.78%0.0663+110
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox58.86%0.1773+100
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals52.07%0.0415+100
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals64.86%0.1869-120
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox59.42%0.3073+120
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers57.29%0.0485-120
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates43.64%0.1784+170
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresNew York Mets67.48%0.2888-110
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies41.14%0.0696+160
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays64.13%0.3788+115
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds43.68%0.0484+140
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins42.67%-0.0399+125
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers54.65%-0.0162-125
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics51.89%0.1674+125

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays64.65%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks50.78%
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox58.86%
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals52.07%
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals64.86%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox59.42%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers57.29%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants56.36%
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresNew York Mets67.48%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians58.86%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays64.13%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Dodgers56.32%
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals57.33%
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers54.65%
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics51.89%

  • 7/29/25 Recap

    Very mediocre day today. Had tons of picks, a lot of which were high probability, but only half of them hit. Especially disappointed by the Blue Jays loss in the second match of the doubleheaders since that is my first 80% probability pick in a very long time, and it was a loss.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/16
    Sportsbook favorites won: 10/16
    Picks won: 6/12
    Net Units: -0.15u
    ROI: -1.25%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 15/31
    Sportsbook favorites won: 16/31
    Picks won: 12/20
    Net Units: +7.37u
    ROI: 36.85%

  • 7/29/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +110
    • Toronto Blue Jays ML -135
    • Colorado Rockies ML +180
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +125
    • Minnesota Twins ML -110
    • Kansas City Royals ML -125
    • Chicago White Sox ML +155
    • Milwaukee Brewers ML -115
    • Los Angeles Angels ML -125
    • San Diego Padres ML +105
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135
    • Oakland Athletics ML +100

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays52.12%0.0945+110
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays80.41%0.3990-135
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies51.38%0.4385+180
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers61.93%0.0590-140
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees67.04%0.0258-190
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds53.04%0.1935+125
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins68.60%0.3103-110
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.87%0.1856-125
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox56.14%0.4316+155
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers61.29%0.1339-115
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals69.51%0.1051-170
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals50.59%0.0876+115
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels61.79%0.1122-125
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres55.76%0.1432+105
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates52.91%0.2435+135
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics57.16%0.1432+100

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays52.12%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays80.41%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies51.38%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers61.93%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees67.04%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds53.04%
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins68.60%
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.87%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox56.14%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers61.29%
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals69.51%
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals50.59%
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels61.79%
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres55.76%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates52.91%
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics57.16%

  • 7/28/25 Recap

    Incredible day today. Somehow my high probability picks missed, but I’m not complaining considering all of my lower probability picks with juicy odds hit. Definitely my best day of picks since starting this project. What a way to start the week.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 6/8
    Net Units: +7.52u
    ROI: 94.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 6/8
    Net Units: +7.52u
    ROI: 94.00%