Okay day. Not too happy with the White Sox loss but it is what it is.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: +0.05u
ROI: 1.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 36/65
Sportsbook favorites won: 34/65
Picks won: 13/28
Net Units: +0.05u
ROI: 0.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 61.45% | 0.0508 | -140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 51.67% | 0.4467 | +180 |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.86% | 0.0236 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Angels | 46.16% | 0.0847 | +135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.90% | 0.1679 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 52.82% | 0.0828 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.51% | 0.0347 | -140 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.59% | 0.0532 | -140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 60.46% | 0.3301 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 62.12% | 0.0623 | -140 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 64.22% | 0.0981 | -140 |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44.27% | -0.0260 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.93% | 0.3035 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | 59.08% | 0.1698 | +100 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants* | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.28% | 0.1513 | -110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 61.45% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 51.67% |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.86% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.84% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.90% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 52.82% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.51% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.59% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 60.46% |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 62.12% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 64.22% |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 55.73% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.93% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | 59.08% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants* | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.28% |
*Missing Giants starting pitcher
Quite a good day today. Great rebound from the past couple days.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 3/10
Picks won: 5/5
Net Units: +5.62u
ROI: 112.40%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 28/50
Sportsbook favorites won: 26/50
Picks won: 11/23
Net Units: +0.00u
ROI: 0.00%
Eleventh Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | Texas Rangers | 44.02% | -0.0097 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.93% | 0.1065 | -110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 63.21% | 0.0682 | -145 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.29% | -0.0356 | -200 |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 53.83% | 0.1842 | +120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.52% | 0.1941 | -110 |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Athletics | 58.28% | 0.2531 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.65% | 0.0198 | -125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.91% | 0.0598 | -120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 55.71% | 0.3648 | +145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 55.98% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.93% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 63.21% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.29% |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 53.83% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.52% |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Athletics | 58.28% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.65% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.91% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 55.71% |
I’ve been going through it these past couple days. Courtesy of the awful Giants of course. Accuracy still looks fine though even though the picks aren’t hitting so I think it’s less model bad and more just being unlucky.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -2.90u
ROI: -41.43%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 20/40
Sportsbook favorites won: 23/40
Picks won: 6/18
Net Units: -5.62u
ROI: -31.22%
Tenth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.46% | -0.0003 | -140 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 62.24% | 0.2136 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.52% | 0.0141 | -210 |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 68.06% | 0.3476 | +100 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 64.35% | 0.2034 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 55.72% | 0.1979 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Boston Red Sox | 57.93% | 0.1876 | +105 |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Athletics | 49.90% | 0.2225 | +145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.70% | -0.0134 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Minnesota Twins | 56.38% | -0.0190 | -135 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | Texas Rangers | 42.44% | 0.0823 | +155 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | 41.78% | 0.0236 | +145 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians | 54.59% | 0.1192 | +105 |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 48.28% | 0.1587 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.13% | 0.0542 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.46% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 62.24% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.52% |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 68.06% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 64.35% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 55.72% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Boston Red Sox | 57.93% |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.10% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.70% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Minnesota Twins | 56.38% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.56% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.22% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians | 54.59% |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | New York Mets | 51.72% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.13% |
Logan Webb is a terrorist. Also, Cardinals and Mets game pushed to tmrw.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/13
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.90u
ROI: -58.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 12/25
Sportsbook favorites won: 14/25
Picks won: 4/11
Net Units: -2.72u
ROI: -24.70%
Ninth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Boston Red Sox | 43.66% | 0.0696 | +145 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.73% | 0.0042 | -130 |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Athletics | 46.85% | 0.1711 | +150 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 58.84% | 0.0237 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.57% | -0.0169 | -115 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | Texas Rangers | 54.69% | 0.0938 | +100 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | 41.57% | -0.0024 | +140 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 47.96% | -0.0409 | +100 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 62.84% | 0.1751 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.51% | 0.0226 | -230 |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 48.19% | 0.1325 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 63.54% | 0.2390 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.73% | 0.1016 | +105 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 55.85% | 0.1728 | +110 |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 66.20% | 0.1718 | -130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.34% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.73% |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.15% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 58.84% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.57% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | Texas Rangers | 54.69% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.43% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians | 52.04% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 62.84% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.51% |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | New York Mets | 51.81% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 63.54% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.73% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 55.85% |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 66.20% |
Braves choked and idk what was up with the Marlins. Alright day though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.18u
ROI: 3.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.18u
ROI: 3.00%
Eighth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 54.43% | 0.1702 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 55.59% | 0.1117 | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.73% | 0.1663 | -120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 67.74% | 0.2938 | -110 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 39.21% | 0.0980 | +180 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 70.16% | 0.0384 | -210 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 53.18% | -0.0162 | -115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.00% | 0.0000 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.52% | 0.0289 | -210 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 52.64% | 0.1843 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 53.92% | 0.1592 | +115 |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 66.43% | 0.3950 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 54.43% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 55.59% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.73% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 67.74% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 60.79% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 70.16% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 53.18% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.52% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 52.64% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 53.92% |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 66.43% |
