Bayesball Picks

Eleventh Day of Testing Period

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Washington Nationals ML -110, 6%
• Colorado Rockies ML +120, 7.5%
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 10%
• Athletics ML +115, 11%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +145, 12.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees	Texas Rangers	44.02%	-0.0097	+125
Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	57.93%	0.1065	-110
Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	63.21%	0.0682	-145
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	64.29%	-0.0356	-200
New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	53.83%	0.1842	+120
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Pittsburgh Pirates	62.52%	0.1941	-110
Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies	Athletics	58.28%	0.2531	+115
Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	56.65%	0.0198	-125
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	57.91%	0.0598	-120
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	St. Louis Cardinals	55.71%	0.3648	+145

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	55.98%
Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	57.93%
Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	63.21%
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	64.29%
New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	53.83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Pittsburgh Pirates	62.52%
Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies	Athletics	58.28%
Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	56.65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	57.91%
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	St. Louis Cardinals	55.71%