Tenth Day of Testing Period
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- St. Louis Cardinals ML -105, 11%
- San Francisco Giants ML +100, 17.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML -115, 11.5%
- Atlanta Braves ML +115, 8.5%
- Boston Red Sox ML +105, 9%
- Athletics ML +145, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.46% | -0.0003 | -140 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 62.24% | 0.2136 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.52% | 0.0141 | -210 |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 68.06% | 0.3476 | +100 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 64.35% | 0.2034 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 55.72% | 0.1979 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Boston Red Sox | 57.93% | 0.1876 | +105 |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Athletics | 49.90% | 0.2225 | +145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.70% | -0.0134 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Minnesota Twins | 56.38% | -0.0190 | -135 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | Texas Rangers | 42.44% | 0.0823 | +155 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | 41.78% | 0.0236 | +145 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians | 54.59% | 0.1192 | +105 |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 48.28% | 0.1587 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.13% | 0.0542 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.46% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 62.24% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.52% |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 68.06% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | 64.35% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | 55.72% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Boston Red Sox | 57.93% |
| Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.10% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.70% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals | Minnesota Twins | 56.38% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.56% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.22% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians | 54.59% |
| New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies | New York Mets | 51.72% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.13% |
Bayesball Picks 
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