Horrible day today. Might be the worst day since I’ve started this project. Was so happy yesterday to break my losing streak but this day was almost worse than the whole streak combined maybe.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15 Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15 Picks won: 3/9 Net Units: -4.35u ROI: -48.33%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 13/28 Sportsbook favorites won: 14/28 Picks won: 7/15 Net Units: -1.70u ROI: -11.33%
Horrible day today. Model changed the output for the Reds game, and it was suspended, so I will not be including that match given how wacky it was. White Sox choked a 5-0 lead. Athletics lost with 75% projected probability. Nationals got swept horribly and my model had them all 3 games. This week was honestly really rough. Monday was the saving grace this week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/14 Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14 Picks won: 3/8 Net Units: -1.75u ROI: -21.88%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 45/92 Sportsbook favorites won: 46/92 Picks won: 27/50 Net Units: +6.30u ROI: 12.60%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
Matchup
Higher EV Team
Probability
EV
Odds
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
54.81%
0.1235
+105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
44.94%
0.2583
+180
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds*
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
55.64%
0.4468
+160
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
44.50%
-0.0433
+115
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets
New York Mets
69.66%
0.0937
-175
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
45.56%
0.0933
+140
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
56.12%
0.1505
+105
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs
Baltimore Orioles
41.04%
0.0669
+160
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies
Pittsburgh Pirates
67.29%
0.0498
-180
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
74.38%
0.4503
-105
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
50.06%
0.1013
+120
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals
43.66%
0.1352
+160
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
55.64%
0.2519
+125
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers
36.79%
-0.0435
+160
Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:
Matchup
Predicted Team
Probability
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
54.81%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
55.06%
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds*
N/A
N/A
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
55.64%
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
55.50%
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets
New York Mets
69.66%
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
54.44%
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
56.12%
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
58.96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies
Pittsburgh Pirates
67.29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
74.38%
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
50.06%
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
56.34%
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
55.64%
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
63.21%
*This game started yesterday. I had Reds originally at ~52%. The game has since started to a 1-0 Reds lead with baserunners on first and second base. Since this is a suspended game, play will resume from this point forward. My model changed to Braves 67% since then, but I will not pick a winner for a match that has already started. Plus, I still have the Reds ML bet active. As such, I will treat this game as one from yesterday, and not as one from today.
Bayesball Picks 