Pretty bad day. Big chokes from Cardinals, Rays, and Mariners.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 2/6
Net Units: -1.96u
ROI: -32.67%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 21/36
Sportsbook favorites won: 20/36
Picks won: 6/15
Net Units: -1.06u
ROI: -7.07%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 41.90% | 0.0476 | +150 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% | -0.0152 | -160 |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals | 56.31% | 0.2952 | +130 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | 41.96% | 0.0700 | +155 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 63.93% | 0.1125 | -135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.19% | 0.1774 | +130 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.14% | -0.0042 | -110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 56.19% | -0.0504 | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% | -0.0250 | -105 |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | Miami Marlins | 56.74% | 0.0044 | -130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | 45.70% | 0.0053 | +120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 48.20% | -0.0359 | +100 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 64.16% | 0.1357 | -130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.94% | 0.1428 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 45.99% | 0.3797 | +200 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 58.10% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals | 56.31% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.04% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 63.93% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.19% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.14% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 56.19% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | Miami Marlins | 56.74% |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.30% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.80% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 64.16% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.94% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54.01% |
Not a great day tbh but GIANTS BEAT THE DODGERS RAHHH
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
Picks won: 2/6
Net Units: -0.60u
ROI: -10.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 13/21
Sportsbook favorites won: 13/21
Picks won: 4/9
Net Units: +0.90u
ROI: 10.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Los Angeles Angels | 55.33% | 0.1619 | +110 |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 48.61% | 0.0938 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals | 50.00% | 0.1000 | +120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | 35.12% | 0.1765 | +235 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Philadelphia Phillies | 59.97% | -0.0104 | -155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.26% | 0.1207 | -125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | Detroit Tigers | 43.68% | -0.0391 | +120 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 55.83% | 0.1166 | +100 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.88% | 0.0177 | +100 |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | Miami Marlins | 49.60% | -0.0526 | -110 |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | 60.52% | 0.3012 | +115 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 47.48% | -0.0267 | +105 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 62.87% | -0.0507 | -195 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals | 44.27% | -0.0262 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 40.04% | 0.4414 | +260 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Los Angeles Angels | 55.33% |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 51.39% |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.88% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Philadelphia Phillies | 59.97% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.26% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 56.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 55.83% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.88% |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.40% |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | 60.52% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.52% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 62.87% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.73% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.96% |
ORIOLES BEAT THE YANKEES RAHHH
GIANTS BEAT THE DODGERS RAHHH
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/6
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/6
Picks won: 2/3
Net Units: +1.50u
ROI: 50.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/6
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/6
Picks won: 2/3
Net Units: +1.50u
ROI: 50.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Los Angeles Angels | 42.00% | -0.0130 | +135 |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 60.07% | -0.0328 | -165 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.05% | 0.1320 | -105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 62.99% | 0.1779 | -115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 58.26% | -0.0271 | -150 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 57.98% | 0.4786 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 58.00% |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 60.07% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.05% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 62.99% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 58.26% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 57.98% |
Cardinals make me wanna tear my hair out. Bot 9 2 outs and somehow lets up a 2 run homer to tie it.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.15u
ROI: 2.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 47/94
Sportsbook favorites won: 49/94
Picks won: 17/38
Net Units: -1.70u
ROI: -4.47%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 52.25% | 0.1233 | +115 |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Athletics | 52.95% | 0.0113 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.91% | 0.2692 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 44.27% | 0.5052 | +240 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 56.48% | 0.1013 | -105 |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Houston Astros | 48.53% | -0.0294 | +100 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 59.14% | -0.0124 | -130 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 63.60% | 0.3038 | +105 |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 58.32% | 0.0322 | -130 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 52.77% | 0.0818 | +105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.03% | 0.0147 | -105 |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 50.34% | -0.0386 | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 68.04% | 0.4288 | +110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.67% | -0.0500 | -130 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 58.11% | 0.1913 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 52.25% |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Athletics | 52.95% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.91% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.73% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 56.48% |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.47% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 59.14% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 63.60% |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 58.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 52.77% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.03% |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 50.34% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 68.04% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.67% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 58.11% |
Cardinals choked hard. Rockies too, but that’s to be expected. Also, Rays game pushed to tmrw.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14
Picks won: 1/4
Net Units: -1.90u
ROI: -47.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 42/79
Sportsbook favorites won: 41/79
Picks won: 14/32
Net Units: -1.85u
ROI: -5.78%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Angels | 39.70% | -0.0075 | +150 |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Athletics | 55.66% | 0.1689 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Houston Astros | 45.02% | 0.0805 | +140 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.57% | 0.4079 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 64.21% | 0.0338 | -165 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 58.67% | 0.5546 | +165 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | 52.27% | 0.0349 | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 63.01% | 0.0649 | -145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 59.63% | 0.2821 | +115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 48.67% | 0.0707 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 61.77% | 0.0439 | -145 |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 58.57% | 0.0718 | -120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.00% | 0.1771 | +120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.00% | 0.0796 | -120 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.55% | 0.0423 | -170 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.30% |
| Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | Athletics | 55.66% |
| Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 54.98% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.57% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 64.21% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies | Colorado Rockies | 58.67% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | 52.27% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers | Chicago Cubs | 63.01% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 59.63% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox | Seattle Mariners | 51.33% |
| New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Yankees | 61.77% |
| New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | 58.57% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.00% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.00% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.55% |
