My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Los Angeles Angels ML +110, 7%
- Colorado Rockies ML +235, 3.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -125, 7.5%
- Chicago Cubs ML +100, 6%
- San Diego Padres ML +115, 13%
- San Francisco Giants ML +260, 8%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Los Angeles Angels | 55.33% | 0.1619 | +110 |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 48.61% | 0.0938 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals | 50.00% | 0.1000 | +120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | 35.12% | 0.1765 | +235 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Philadelphia Phillies | 59.97% | -0.0104 | -155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.26% | 0.1207 | -125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | Detroit Tigers | 43.68% | -0.0391 | +120 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 55.83% | 0.1166 | +100 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.88% | 0.0177 | +100 |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | Miami Marlins | 49.60% | -0.0526 | -110 |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | 60.52% | 0.3012 | +115 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 47.48% | -0.0267 | +105 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 62.87% | -0.0507 | -195 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals | 44.27% | -0.0262 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 40.04% | 0.4414 | +260 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | Los Angeles Angels | 55.33% |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 51.39% |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.88% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Philadelphia Phillies | 59.97% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.26% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 56.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 55.83% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.88% |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.40% |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | 60.52% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.52% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 62.87% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.73% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.96% |
Bayesball Picks 
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