Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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8/12/25 Baseball Picks

August 12, 2025

My Picks

Cleveland Guardians ML -145, 12.5%
Washington Nationals ML +170, 5%
Chicago White Sox ML +155, 5%
Pittsburgh Pirates ML +110, 20%
Arizona Diamondbacks ML +135, 20%
Boston Red Sox ML -110, 7.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers ML -195, 20%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	42.91%%	0.0083	+135
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	45.15%	0.0159	+125
Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	68.07%	0.1504	-145
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	69.95%	-0.0066	-240
Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	57.38%	-0.0016	-135
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	New York Mets	61.25%	0.0229	-150
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals	Washington Nationals	42.45%	0.1463	+170
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	43.48%	0.1088	+155
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	Pittsburgh Pirates	65.30%	0.3713	+110
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies	36.59%	-0.0122	+170
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	Arizona Diamondbacks	60.58%	0.4237	+135
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros	Boston Red Sox	57.70%	0.1021	-110
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Dodgers	76.92%	0.1615	-195
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	57.62%	0.0545	-120
Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	Athletics	53.39%	-0.0016	-115

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles	Seattle Mariners	57.09%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	54.85%
Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	68.07%
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	69.95%
Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	57.38%
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	New York Mets	61.25%
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	57.55%
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	Detroit Tigers	56.52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	Pittsburgh Pirates	65.30%
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	63.41%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	Arizona Diamondbacks	60.58%
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros	Boston Red Sox	57.70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Dodgers	76.92%
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	57.62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	Athletics	53.39%

8/11/25 Recap

August 11, 2025

Horrible day for my model, but I made a big mistake and forgot to update my dataset and team records. Really bad slip-up to make, since that affects quite a few of my features. Also, I’m almost done with testing and analysis for my new model, which I’ll use starting now.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 4/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11
Picks won: 0/5
Net Units: -5.00u
ROI: -100%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 4/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11
Picks won: 0/5
Net Units: -5.00u
ROI: -100%

8/11/25 Baseball Picks

August 11, 2025

My Picks

Cincinnati Reds ML -125, 7.5%
Minnesota Twins ML +160, 12.5%
Washington Nationals ML +125, 22.5%
Chicago White Sox ML +130, 7.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks ML +145, 5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	61.36%	0.1045	-125
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	Minnesota Twins	51.48%	0.3385	+160
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals	Washington Nationals	67.74%	0.5241	+125
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	50.53%	0.1621	+130
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	Pittsburgh Pirates	36.46%	0.0210	+180
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies	34.54%	-0.0156	+185
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	Arizona Diamondbacks	46.75%	0.1454	+145
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	43.05%	0.0547	+145
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	38.35%	-0.0030	+160
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	57.70%	0.0213	-130
Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	Athletics	54.13%	0.0122	-115

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	61.36%
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	Minnesota Twins	51.48%
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals	Washington Nationals	67.74%
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	50.53%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	63.54%
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	65.46%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	53.25%
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros	Boston Red Sox	56.95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Dodgers	61.65%
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	57.70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	Athletics	54.13%

8/10/25 Recap

August 10, 2025

That wraps up the worst week I hope I will ever have in this project. Luckily, I did figure out that the SVM I had just swapped out was not very consistent and has been dropping in accuracy the past couple of weeks. I think it might have been overfitting but I’m not certain.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 3/7
Net Units: -0.20u
ROI: -2.86%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 49/93
Sportsbook favorites won: 49/93
Picks won: 20/47
Net Units: -7.00u
ROI: -14.89%

8/10/25 Baseball Picks

August 10, 2025

My Picks

Kansas City Royals ML -130, 7.5%
Athletics ML +105, 15%
Los Angeles Angels ML +175, 5%
Chicago White Sox ML +120, 10%
New York Mets ML +100, 7.5%
Boston Red Sox ML +110, 10%
Toronto Blue Jays ML +155, 15%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals	60.47%	0.0702	-130
Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	Athletics	61.48%	0.2604	+105
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Cincinnati Reds	53.58%	0.0019	-115
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins	49.94%	0.0488	+110
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	68.63%	-0.0049	-220
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels	39.82%	0.0950	+175
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	54.46%	0.1981	+120
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	New York Mets	54.50%	0.0900	+100
Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers	Philadelphia Phillies	64.94%	0.0455	-165
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	Washington Nationals	45.63%	0.0038	+120
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	73.08%	-0.0135	-285
Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres	Boston Red Sox	54.76%	0.1501	+110
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	Tampa Bay Rays	36.89%	-0.0223	+165
Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Toronto Blue Jays	53.85%	0.3732	+155
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs	57.43%	0.0164	-130

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals	60.47%
Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	Athletics	61.48%
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Cincinnati Reds	53.58%
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	50.06%
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	68.63%
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	60.18%
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	54.46%
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	New York Mets	54.50%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers	Philadelphia Phillies	64.94%
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	54.37%
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	73.08%
Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres	Boston Red Sox	54.76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	63.11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Toronto Blue Jays	53.85%
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs	57.43%

8/9/25 Recap

August 9, 2025

Horrible day today. I just cannot catch a break this week.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 9/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16
Picks won: 2/6
Net Units: -2.03u
ROI: -33.83%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 40/78
Sportsbook favorites won: 41/78
Picks won: 17/40
Net Units: -6.80u
ROI: -17.00%

8/9/25 Baseball Picks

August 9, 2025

My Picks

San Francisco Giants ML -170, 7.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 12.5%
Athletics ML +100, 5%
Chicago White Sox ML +120, 25%
Atlanta Braves ML -105, 22.5%
St. Louis Cardinals ML -110, 15%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins	55.68%	0.0413	-115
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees	Houston Astros	59.31%	0.0497	-130
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	66.78%	0.0619	-170
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels	47.95%	0.0068	+110
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.55%	0.1911	+100
Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	Athletics	54.03%	0.0807	+100
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals	55.74%	0.0034	-125
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	70.86%	0.5589	+120
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	52.36%	0.0472	+100
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	70.12%	0.3674	-105
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	62.90%	0.2014	-110
Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	59.85%	0.0415	-135
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies	39.15%	0.1548	+195
Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	57.40%	-0.0414	-150
Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	65.10%	0.0221	-175
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	57.64%	0.0029	-135

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	Miami Marlins	55.68%
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees	Houston Astros	59.31%
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	66.78%
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	52.05%
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.55%
Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	Athletics	54.03%
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals	55.74%
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	70.86%
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	52.36%
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	70.12%
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	62.90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	59.85%
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	60.85%
Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	57.40%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	65.10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	57.64%

8/8/25 Recap

August 8, 2025

Model did pretty well today. Unfortunately, my picks did not.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 3/7
Net Units: -0.88u
ROI: -12.57%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 31/62
Sportsbook favorites won: 33/62
Picks won: 15/34
Net Units: -4.77u
ROI: -14.03%

8/8/25 Baseball Picks

August 8, 2025

My Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105
New York Yankees ML +105
Los Angeles Angels ML +285
Atlanta Braves ML +110
Chicago White Sox ML +140
St. Louis Cardinals ML +135
San Francisco Giants ML -180

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	65.49%	0.2247	+105
Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	57.23%	0.0301	-125
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	57.03%	0.1692	+105
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels	34.12%	0.3134	+285
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	53.94%	0.1353	+110
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	63.70%	0.5287	+140
Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	48.34%	0.0393	+115
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	59.14%	0.0113	-140
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	New York Mets	52.15%	0.0952	+110
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	56.15%	0.3196	+135
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies	38.49%	0.1739	+205
Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres	Boston Red Sox	37.23%	-0.0320	+160
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	60.05%	0.0148	-145
Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	60.50%	-0.0018	-155
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	74.27%	0.1586	-180

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	65.49%
Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	57.23%
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	57.03%
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	65.88%
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	53.94%
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	63.70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers	Philadelphia Phillies	51.66%
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	59.14%
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	New York Mets	52.15%
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	56.15%
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	61.51%
Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	62.77%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	60.05%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	60.50%
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	74.27%

8/7/25 Recap

August 7, 2025

Yet another bad day. This week has been awful. White Sox choked horrendously. If they hadn’t, I’d be up a decent bit today.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 2/4
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/4
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -1.41u
ROI: -47.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 21/47
Sportsbook favorites won: 23/47
Picks won: 12/27
Net Units: -3.89u
ROI: -14.41%

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