Alright day. Giants got fried ngl.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14
Picks won: 2/3
Net Units: +1.13u
ROI: 37.67%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14
Picks won: 2/3
Net Units: +1.13u
ROI: 37.67%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 45.26% | 0.0183 | +125 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.89% | 0.0377 | -155 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.34% | -0.0205 | -130 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 53.19% | -0.0054 | -115 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.10% | 0.0522 | +110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.82% | 0.0578 | +145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 53.86% | 0.0072 | -115 |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 63.58% | 0.1634 | -120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.93% | 0.0324 | -170 |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.95% | 0.1718 | +130 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 48.35% | 0.0395 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 43.48% | -0.0216 | +125 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 56.22% | 0.1806 | +110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | 48.32% | 0.1355 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 54.74% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.89% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.34% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 53.19% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.10% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.82% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 53.86% |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 63.58% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.93% |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.95% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 51.65% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.52% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 56.22% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 51.68% |
Pretty bad week tbh. Pretty good day though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 1/1
Net Units: +1.20u
ROI: 120.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 50/92
Sportsbook favorites won: 51/92
Picks won: 11/29
Net Units: -5.03u
ROI: -17.34%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.23% | 0.0530 | -170 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 49.37% | 0.0367 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.91% | -0.0446 | -135 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox | 44.83% | 0.0312 | +130 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.35% | -0.0246 | -170 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.60% | 0.0165 | +110 |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.35% | 0.0190 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 54.08% | -0.0104 | -120 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 56.75% | 0.2485 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.74% | -0.0327 | -125 |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.83% | 0.0034 | -120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 43.11% | 0.0130 | +130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | San Francisco Giants | 44.82% | 0.0085 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 48.64% | 0.0944 | +125 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 40.79% | -0.0415 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.23% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles | 50.63% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.91% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.17% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.35% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.60% |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.35% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 54.08% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 56.75% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.74% |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.83% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56.89% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.18% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.36% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.21% |
Both my losses were just straight unlucky D:
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: -0.18u
ROI: -4.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 40/77
Sportsbook favorites won: 43/77
Picks won: 10/28
Net Units: -6.23u
ROI: -18.68%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 64.68% | 0.1643 | -125 |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.13% | 0.0271 | -120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 44.80% | 0.0079 | +125 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 60.01% | 0.1462 | -110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 44.05% | 0.0793 | +145 |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.42% | 0.0925 | -150 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.28% | 0.0027 | -180 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 56.86% | -0.0294 | +125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 64.35% | 0.2290 | -110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 66.07% | 0.0506 | -170 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox | 45.14% | -0.0070 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.10% | 0.0730 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 47.24% | 0.0393 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | San Francisco Giants | 52.30% | 0.0722 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 64.68% |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.13% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.20% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 60.01% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.95% |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.42% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.28% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 56.86% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 64.35% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.00% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 66.07% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 54.86% |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.10% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Dodgers | 52.76% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | San Francisco Giants | 52.30% |
Pirates blew it.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.90u
ROI: -58.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 32/62
Sportsbook favorites won: 38/62
Picks won: 8/24
Net Units: -6.05u
ROI: -25.21%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.23% | 0.1523 | -135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 48.03% | 0.0327 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.92% | 0.1113 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.72% | 0.0216 | -130 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 54.68% | 0.0663 | -105 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox | 48.94% | 0.1256 | +130 |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 43.78% | 0.0288 | +135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.33% | 0.2833 | +120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | Kansas City Royals | 58.15% | 0.1338 | -105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 51.62% | 0.0582 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 59.06% | 0.6833 | +185 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 56.88% | -0.0103 | -135 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | San Francisco Giants | 45.49% | -0.0448 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.23% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles | 51.97% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.92% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.72% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 54.68% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 51.06% |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Yankees | 56.22% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.33% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 50.00% |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | Kansas City Royals | 58.15% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 51.62% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 59.06% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 56.88% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.51% |
Awful day tbh.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/11
Picks won: 1/4
Net Units: -2.09u
ROI: -52.25%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 26/47
Sportsbook favorites won: 28/47
Picks won: 7/19
Net Units: -3.15u
ROI: -16.58%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | 41.23% | -0.0310 | +135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals | 62.77% | 0.4123 | +125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | Detroit Tigers | 45.82% | 0.0996 | +140 |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins* | Miami Marlins | 52.80% | 0.0824 | +105 |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 64.93% | 0.0843 | -150 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 59.54% | 0.0539 | -130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.96% | 0.1070 | -110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.84% | 0.1474 | -105 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 59.94% | -0.0470 | -170 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 56.18% | -0.0394 | -140 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 52.35% | 0.2564 | +140 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.77% |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals | 62.77% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 54.18% |
| Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins* | Miami Marlins | 52.80% |
| San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 64.93% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 59.54% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Athletics | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.96% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.84% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 59.94% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 56.18% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 52.35% |
*Missing Marlins starting pitcher
