My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Detroit Tigers ML -125, 10%
- Washington Nationals ML -110, 8%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -150, 6.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML -110, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 64.68% | 0.1643 | -125 |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.13% | 0.0271 | -120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 44.80% | 0.0079 | +125 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 60.01% | 0.1462 | -110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 44.05% | 0.0793 | +145 |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.42% | 0.0925 | -150 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.28% | 0.0027 | -180 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 56.86% | -0.0294 | +125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 64.35% | 0.2290 | -110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 66.07% | 0.0506 | -170 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox | 45.14% | -0.0070 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.10% | 0.0730 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 47.24% | 0.0393 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | San Francisco Giants | 52.30% | 0.0722 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 64.68% |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.13% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.20% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 60.01% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.95% |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.42% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.28% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 56.86% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 64.35% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.00% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 66.07% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 54.86% |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.10% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Dodgers | 52.76% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | San Francisco Giants | 52.30% |
Bayesball Picks 
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