My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -135, 10%
- Detroit Tigers ML +110, 5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +120, 11.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML -105, 7%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +185, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.23% | 0.1523 | -135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 48.03% | 0.0327 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.92% | 0.1113 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.72% | 0.0216 | -130 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 54.68% | 0.0663 | -105 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Boston Red Sox | 48.94% | 0.1256 | +130 |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 43.78% | 0.0288 | +135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.33% | 0.2833 | +120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | Kansas City Royals | 58.15% | 0.1338 | -105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 51.62% | 0.0582 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 59.06% | 0.6833 | +185 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 56.88% | -0.0103 | -135 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | San Francisco Giants | 45.49% | -0.0448 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.23% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles | 51.97% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.92% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.72% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 54.68% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 51.06% |
| New York Yankees vs New York Mets | New York Yankees | 56.22% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.33% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 50.00% |
| Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | Kansas City Royals | 58.15% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 51.62% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 59.06% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 56.88% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.51% |
Bayesball Picks 
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