Another day, another postponed game. Not a great day today tbh, but I’ve had a great week so I can’t complain.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/14
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -0.45u
ROI: -15.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 42/79
Sportsbook favorites won: 43/79
Picks won: 17/26
Net Units: +9.69u
ROI: 37.27%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds* | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.17% | 0.0920 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.98% | 0.3730 | +120 |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | Houston Astros | 46.65% | 0.0497 | +125 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.11% | 0.0908 | -155 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | Detroit Tigers | 49.95% | -0.0011 | +100 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cleveland Guardians | 40.44% | 0.0716 | +165 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago White Sox | 59.86% | 0.2271 | +105 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 51.52% | 0.0422 | +115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | Minnesota Twins | 51.02% | 0.0205 | +100 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 47.31% | 0.2063 | +155 |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 51.22% | -0.0012 | -105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds* | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.67% | 0.2161 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.18% | 0.0837 | +100 |
| Athletics vs San Diego Padres | Athletics | 62.62% | 0.1961 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 46.30% | 0.0186 | +120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.46% | 0.0277 | -175 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds* | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.17% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.98% |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 53.35% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.11% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 50.05% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 59.56% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago White Sox | 59.86% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 51.52% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | Minnesota Twins | 51.02% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 52.69% |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 51.22% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds* | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.67% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.18% |
| Athletics vs San Diego Padres | Athletics | 62.62% |
| Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | Texas Rangers | 53.70% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.46% |
*Doubleheader
Really good day. Could’ve been better given how many ridiculously high EV plays there were today, but still really solid. Unfortunately, Cardinal games did get moved to tmrw. Not a fan of doubleheaders.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/14
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +2.25u
ROI: 32.14%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 38/65
Sportsbook favorites won: 37/65
Picks won: 16/23
Net Units: +10.14u
ROI: 44.09%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | Houston Astros | 52.19% | 0.1482 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.74% | 0.2174 | -110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cleveland Guardians | 44.31% | 0.1256 | +155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.48% | 0.5153 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.21% | 0.2531 | +140 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | Minnesota Twins | 51.69% | 0.1630 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 56.90% | 0.0241 | -125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 56.17% | -0.0227 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 46.80% | 0.3103 | +180 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 48.92% | 0.0664 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.03% | -0.0063 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 72.84% | 0.7846 | +145 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies | 43.54% | 0.1538 | +165 |
| Athletics vs San Diego Padres | Athletics | 65.70% | 0.3796 | +110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 49.44% | -0.0359 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | Houston Astros | 52.19% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.74% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.69% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.48% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.21% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | Minnesota Twins | 51.69% |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 56.90% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 56.17% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 53.20% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 51.08% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.03% |
| Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 72.84% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56.46% |
| Athletics vs San Diego Padres | Athletics | 65.70% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago White Sox | 50.56% |
Solid day. Good bounce back from last week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/7
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/7
Picks won: 2/3
Net Units: +1.12u
ROI: 37.33%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 29/51
Sportsbook favorites won: 31/51
Picks won: 12/16
Net Units: +7.89u
ROI: 49.31%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 49.13% | -0.0419 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.37% | 0.1217 | -130 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.22% | 0.1159 | -105 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 43.10% | -0.0302 | +125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.95% | 0.2209 | +135 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 52.75% | -0.0135 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68.78% | 0.0248 | -205 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.87% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.37% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.22% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 56.90% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.95% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 52.75% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68.78% |
Really good day today. Massive Rangers clutch.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 4/5
Net Units: +2.66u
ROI: 53.20%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 25/44
Sportsbook favorites won: 27/44
Picks won: 10/13
Net Units: +6.77u
ROI: 52.08%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds | 54.59% | 0.1737 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.52% | 0.1067 | -130 |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 63.42% | 0.0592 | -150 |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers | 63.75% | 0.1092 | -135 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 52.45% | 0.0752 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | 56.61% | 0.2454 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers* | Detroit Tigers | 50.00% | 0.0000 | +100 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 41.21% | 0.1333 | +175 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 49.59% | 0.0166 | +105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 43.95% | 0.0769 | +145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 58.85% | 0.1770 | +100 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.19% | -0.0222 | -110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.00% | -0.0100 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.16% | 0.0359 | +160 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 62.36% | 0.0851 | -135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds | 54.59% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.52% |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 63.42% |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers | 63.75% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 52.45% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | 56.61% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers* | Detroit Tigers | 50.00% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 58.79% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | New York Mets | 50.41% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.05% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 58.85% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.19% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.16% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 62.36% |
*Missing Tigers starting pitcher
Really good day today. Massive White Sox clutch.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/5
Net Units: +2.98u
ROI: 59.60%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 16/29
Sportsbook favorites won: 18/29
Picks won: 6/8
Net Units: +4.11u
ROI: 51.38%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 47.56% | 0.0463 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 41.61% | -0.0013 | +140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.14% | 0.0091 | -120 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds | 46.38% | -0.0259 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 53.50% | 0.1503 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 48.29% | 0.0140 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 65.85% | 0.1260 | -140 |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 66.64% | 0.1395 | -140 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.16% | -0.0220 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.94% | 0.0713 | -105 |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers | 63.35% | 0.1846 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 50.00% | 0.0500 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.80% | 0.0331 | -175 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 52.65% | 0.0793 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | 56.68% | 0.2752 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 52.44% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 58.39% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.14% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.62% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 53.50% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.71% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 65.85% |
| Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 66.64% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.16% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.94% |
| Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies | Texas Rangers | 63.35% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.80% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 52.65% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | 56.68% |
