Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

More Information

Recent posts

  • 8/17/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Philadelphia Phillies ML -185, 5%
    • Boston Red Sox ML -270, 20%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 2.5%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +130, 15%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +160, 5%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML -140, 10%
    • Athletics ML -110, 10%
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +135, 10%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies69.09%0.0640-185
    Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox83.46%0.1434-270
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays53.59%0.0236-110
    Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland GuardiansAtlanta Braves48.24%0.0129+110
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds53.38%0.0409-105
    Baltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros57.39%-0.0300-145
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers54.66%-0.0325-130
    Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox43.64%0.0691+145
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals60.21%0.3848+130
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates44.94%0.1686+160
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks67.51%0.1544-140
    Los Angeles Angels vs AthleticsAthletics62.30%0.1899-110
    Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco GiantsTampa Bay Rays52.58%0.2355+135
    San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres41.52%-0.0451+135
    Seattle Mariners vs New York MetsSeattle Mariners58.75%0.0575-125

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies69.09%
    Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox83.46%
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays53.59%
    Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.76%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds53.38%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros57.39%
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers54.66%
    Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals56.36%
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals60.21%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs55.06%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks67.51%
    Los Angeles Angels vs AthleticsAthletics62.30%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco GiantsTampa Bay Rays52.58%
    San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers58.48%
    Seattle Mariners vs New York MetsSeattle Mariners58.75%

  • 8/16/25 Recap

    Another day full of choking. Diamondbacks and Reds had insane chokes. Can’t wait to wrap up this week though. The few starting days of the new model were pretty solid, and I’m still positive with the new model, but this Monday was awful.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 3/8
    Net Units: -2.26u
    ROI: -28.25%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 38/78
    Sportsbook favorites won: 38/78
    Picks won: 15/36
    Net Units: -4.10u
    ROI: -11.39%

  • 8/16/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Seattle Mariners ML -130, 10%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 7.5%
    • Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 10%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +140, 12.5%
    • Detroit Tigers ML -120, 15%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML -200, 10%
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 10%
    • Athletics ML -110, 20%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs72.76%0.0186-250
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays66.54%0.0713-165
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies61.70%-0.0066-165
    Seattle Mariners vs New York MetsSeattle Mariners65.18%0.1538-130
    Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxMiami Marlins38.81%-0.0296+150
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds54.10%0.1903+120
    Baltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles56.66%0.2748+125
    Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians55.27%-0.0051-125
    Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox56.83%0.3639+140
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers67.68%0.2386-120
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals43.91%-0.0121+125
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks73.82%0.1074-200
    Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco GiantsTampa Bay Rays59.70%0.1939+100
    San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers61.79%0.0565-140
    Los Angeles Angels vs AthleticsAthletics73.30%0.4000-110

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs72.76%
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays66.54%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies61.70%
    Seattle Mariners vs New York MetsSeattle Mariners65.18%
    Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox61.19%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds54.10%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles56.66%
    Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians55.27%
    Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox56.83%
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers67.68%
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees56.09%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks73.82%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco GiantsTampa Bay Rays59.70%
    San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers61.79%
    Los Angeles Angels vs AthleticsAthletics73.30%

  • 8/15/25 Recap

    Horrible day. So many of my picks absolutely choked today. Generational choke by the Reds, Rangers, and Giants. Although at this point, the Giants choke was very expected. I see loaded bases and I know they won’t score.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 6/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
    Picks won: 2/8
    Net Units: -3.46u
    ROI: -43.25%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 30/63
    Sportsbook favorites won: 29/63
    Picks won: 12/28
    Net Units: -1.84u
    ROI: -6.57%

  • 8/15/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +180, 10%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 10%
    • Texas Rangers ML -110, 5%
    • Cleveland Guardians ML -120, 15%
    • Detroit Tigers ML -135, 5%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 10%
    • San Diego Padres ML +135, 10%
    • San Francisco Giants ML -140, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates47.87%0.3404+180
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds54.60%0.2012+120
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals37.30%-0.0301+160
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers56.58%0.0807-110
    Seattle Mariners vs New York MetsSeattle Mariners50.76%-0.0250-105
    Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians68.80%0.2590-120
    Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox69.73%0.0738-185
    Baltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles32.27%-0.0318+200
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers62.11%0.0808-135
    Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.07%-0.0045-190
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals54.80%0.1782+115
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks66.47%-0.0162-210
    Los Angeles Angels vs AthleticsAthletics52.22%0.0445+100
    San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres53.53%0.2580+135
    Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants64.15%0.0970-140

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs52.13%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds54.60%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies62.70%
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers56.58%
    Seattle Mariners vs New York MetsSeattle Mariners50.76%
    Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians68.80%
    Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox69.73%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros67.73%
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers62.11%
    Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.07%
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals54.80%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks66.47%
    Los Angeles Angels vs AthleticsAthletics52.22%
    San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres53.53%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants64.15%

  • 8/14/25 Recap

    Pretty poor day today for both me and the sportsbook. I had a lot of 50% swing matches today though, one of which was one of my two picks.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 2/7
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/7
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: +0.85u
    ROI: 42.50%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 24/48
    Sportsbook favorites won: 22/48
    Picks won: 10/20
    Net Units: +1.62u
    ROI: 8.10%

  • 8/14/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Miami Marlins ML +110, 5%
    • Washington Nationals ML +185, 12.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles44.42%-0.0450+115
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysChicago Cubs53.56%-0.0199-120
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins52.16%0.0955+110
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals48.16%0.3726+185
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets71.55%0.0590-210
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins34.85%-0.0243+180
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies38.55%-0.0170+155

    My Model’s Favored Winner Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners55.58%
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysChicago Cubs53.56%
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins52.16%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies51.84%
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets71.55%
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers65.15%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks61.45%

  • 8/13/25 Recap

    Very good day today. New model is cooking. Obviously it’s a bit early to call it a good model, since I lack large numbers and could just be getting lucky rn.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
    Picks won: 5/6
    Net Units: +4.27u
    ROI: 71.17%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 22/41
    Sportsbook favorites won: 19/41
    Picks won: 9/18
    Net Units: +0.77u
    ROI: 4.28%

  • 8/13/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +185, 10%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +130, 7.5%
    • San Diego Padres ML -175, 15%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 5%
    • Miami Marlins ML +105, 10%
    • Minnesota Twins ML +115, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals38.11%-0.0093+160
    Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox47.43%-0.0278+105
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates47.03%0.3405+185
    Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsColorado Rockies32.91%-0.0292+195
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks50.00%0.1500+130
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres73.77%0.1582-175
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds50.00%0.1000+120
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles44.35%-0.0465+115
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins57.19%0.1724+105
    Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesMinnesota Twins53.86%0.1580+115
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays47.75%0.0028+110
    Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros64.72%0.0096-180
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets70.48%0.0220-220
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers70.82%0.0197-225
    Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsTampa Bay Rays55.24%-0.0388-135

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals61.89%
    Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers52.57%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers52.97%
    Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.09%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks50.00%
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres73.77%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds50.00%
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners55.65%
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins57.19%
    Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesMinnesota Twins53.86%
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays52.25%
    Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros64.72%
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets70.48%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers70.82%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsTampa Bay Rays55.24%

  • 8/12/25 Recap

    Pretty good first day for my new model. Hopefully it stays consistent. Sucks that Dodgers choked at the end there.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 4/7
    Net Units: +1.50u
    ROI: 21.43%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 13/26
    Sportsbook favorites won: 14/26
    Picks won: 4/12
    Net Units: -3.50u
    ROI: -29.17%