My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -130, 8%
- Washington Nationals ML -105, 6%
- Toronto Blue Jays ML +135, 8%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 49.13% | -0.0419 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.37% | 0.1217 | -130 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.22% | 0.1159 | -105 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 43.10% | -0.0302 | +125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.95% | 0.2209 | +135 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 52.75% | -0.0135 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68.78% | 0.0248 | -205 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.87% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63.37% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.22% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves | 56.90% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.95% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 52.75% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68.78% |
Bayesball Picks 
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