Mid day today. First week of new model was really good though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.05u
ROI: 0.83%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 38/57
Sportsbook favorites won: 33/57
Picks won: 20/27
Net Units: +12.70u
ROI: 47.04%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | 39.28% | 0.5713 | +300 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.14% | -0.0232 | -135 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 68.77% | 0.1347 | -155 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 32.21% | 0.1292 | +240 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 72.05% | 0.2177 | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 49.36% | 0.1105 | +125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 52.31% | 0.1246 | +115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.12% | 0.0474 | +110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 47.21% | 0.0622 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 48.51% | -0.0056 | +105 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 58.88% | -0.0462 | -160 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% | 0.0000 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 47.43% | 0.1620 | +145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 45.73% | 0.1203 | +145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.72% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.14% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 68.77% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.79% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 72.05% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.64% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 52.31% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.12% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.79% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.49% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 58.88% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 50.00% |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.57% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 54.27% |
Great day. Got pretty lucky with the Athletics and Blue Jays clutches tbh.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14
Picks won: 7/9
Net Units: +4.46u
ROI: 49.56%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 28/42
Sportsbook favorites won: 24/42
Picks won: 17/21
Net Units: +12.65u
ROI: 60.24%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 68.12% | 0.2738 | -115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Toronto Blue Jays | 74.92% | 0.3036 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 37.04% | 0.0742 | +190 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 54.10% | 0.1090 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.55% | 0.0711 | -185 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 54.18% | -0.0248 | -125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% | 0.2462 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.43% | 0.1160 | -110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 49.21% | 0.0827 | +120 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 64.83% | 0.1670 | -125 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.04% | 0.1807 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.15% | -0.0229 | -135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 67.46% | 0.1400 | -145 |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 56.42% | 0.3823 | +145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 68.12% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Toronto Blue Jays | 74.92% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 62.96% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 54.10% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.55% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 54.18% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.43% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.79% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 64.83% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.04% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.15% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 67.46% |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 56.42% |
I’ll be off on a small break, so I won’t be posting for the next couple of days. I might still post my picks tomorrow, but I will not post the recap until I get back. Should be back by Saturday.
Good day overall, but it could have been a lot better if the White Sox didn’t choke a 10-4 lead.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 13/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 12/16
Picks won: 5/7
Net Units: +2.81u
ROI: 40.14%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 19/28
Sportsbook favorites won: 17/28
Picks won: 10/12
Net Units: +8.19u
ROI: 68.25%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.18% | 0.0123 | -135 |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Houston Astros | 41.90% | 0.0266 | +145 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 42.55% | -0.0426 | +125 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.18% | 0.1515 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | New York Mets | 68.74% | -0.0033 | -220 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners | 43.51% | 0.1096 | +155 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 54.97% | 0.2094 | +120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago White Sox | 65.95% | 0.5828 | +140 |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 43.89% | -0.0126 | +125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 56.34% | 0.0535 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Athletics | 52.23% | 0.2012 | +130 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.98% | 0.0611 | -135 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 31.94% | 0.0700 | +235 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels | Cincinnati Reds | 64.84% | 0.0828 | -150 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Guardians | 51.11% | 0.0222 | +100 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 79.51% | 0.1052 | -255 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.18% |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 58.10% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.45% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.18% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | New York Mets | 68.74% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.49% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 54.97% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago White Sox | 65.95% |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | New York Yankees | 56.11% |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 56.34% |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Athletics | 52.23% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.98% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.06% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels | Cincinnati Reds | 64.84% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Guardians | 51.11% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 79.51% |
Great start to the week. Finally got all the analysis done, so I will be using this model until the end of the season probably. And this will be the official start to my second live-test session.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/12
Picks won: 5/5
Net Units: +5.38u
ROI: 107.60%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/12
Picks won: 5/5
Net Units: +5.38u
ROI: 107.60%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 52.68% | -0.0517 | -125 |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 62.59% | 0.0452 | -150 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.27% | 0.1129 | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.81% | -0.0114 | -140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners | 55.36% | 0.0574 | -110 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% | 0.1208 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago White Sox | 59.49% | 0.6955 | +185 |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 69.36% | 0.2069 | -135 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.76% | 0.0077 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 30.08% | 0.0528 | +250 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels | Cincinnati Reds | 66.89% | 0.2241 | -120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.27% | -0.0225 | -114 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 48.64% | 0.0700 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 52.68% |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 62.59% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.27% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.81% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners | 55.36% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago White Sox | 59.49% |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 69.36% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.76% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.92% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels | Cincinnati Reds | 66.89% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.27% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 51.36% |
Horrible day. Half of my losses were chokes in the 8th or 9th inning which really sucks.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 2/8
Net Units: -4.51u
ROI: -56.38%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 43/93
Sportsbook favorites won: 45/93
Picks won: 17/44
Net Units: -8.61u
ROI: -19.57%
Bayesball Picks 