Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 8%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +110, 15%
• Miami Marlins ML +100, 12%
• Houston Astros ML +150, 8%
• Athletics ML +140, 18%
• Washington Nationals ML +140, 10%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays	Pittsburgh Pirates	51.65%	0.2139	+135
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles*	Detroit Tigers	48.08%	-0.0143	+105
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox	Minnesota Twins	43.90%	-0.0122	+125
Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies	Cleveland Guardians	61.17%	0.0643	-135
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays	63.63%	0.3362	+110
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals	53.28%	0.0656	+100
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	62.55%	0.2384	+100
Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	46.30%	0.0094	+120
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	Los Angeles Dodgers	63.18%	-0.0270	-185
Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs	Houston Astros	50.00%	0.2500	+150
Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	51.65%	-0.0135	-110
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies	41.79%	0.1074	+165
Athletics vs San Diego Padres	Athletics	62.56%	0.5013	+140
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals	52.87%	0.2689	+140
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	57.90%	0.0421	-125
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers	54.70%	0.0940	+100

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays	Pittsburgh Pirates	51.65%
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	51.92%
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	56.10%
Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies	Cleveland Guardians	61.17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	Tampa Bay Rays	63.63%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals	53.28%
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	62.55%
Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals	Seattle Mariners	53.70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	Los Angeles Dodgers	63.18%
Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	50.00%
Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	51.65%
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	58.21%
Athletics vs San Diego Padres	Athletics	62.56%
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals	52.87%
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	57.90%
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers	54.70%

*Doubleheader