My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 9.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +180, 8.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML +125, 9%
- Washington Nationals ML +145, 12.5%
- Texas Rangers ML -135, 11.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +260, 5%
- Athletics ML +100, 6.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.59% | 0.2011 | +105 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 45.21% | -0.0279 | +115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 53.10% | -0.0283 | -120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 46.71% | 0.3079 | +180 |
| New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 54.52% | 0.2268 | +125 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 62.03% | -0.0014 | -165 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.90% | 0.0098 | +120 |
| Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians | Washington Nationals | 55.96% | 0.3709 | +145 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | 57.05% | 0.0098 | -130 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 67.34% | 0.1716 | -135 |
| Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.86% | -0.0165 | -170 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 34.66% | 0.2477 | +260 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.12% | 0.1309 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.59% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.79% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 53.10% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.29% |
| New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 54.52% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 62.03% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 54.10% |
| Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians | Washington Nationals | 55.96% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | 57.05% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 67.34% |
| Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.86% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.34% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.12% |
Bayesball Picks 
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