My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Detroit Tigers ML -135, 10%
- Minnesota Twins ML +120, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 66.74% | 0.1613 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 53.87% | 0.1852 | +120 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | Atlanta Braves | 57.47% | -0.0287 | -145 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 46.61% | -0.0211 | +110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.50% | 0.0374 | -180 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.37% | 0.0249 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 66.74% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 53.87% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | Atlanta Braves | 57.47% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 53.39% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.50% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.37% |
Bayesball Picks 
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