Horrendous day. By my calculations, losing on all 6 picks was a ~1% probability event. It’s bound to happen, but man does it feel terrible. Looking at model analysis, it doesn’t seem like the model is doing horribly, just an unlucky day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7//15
Picks won: 0/6
Net Units: -6.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 36/66
Sportsbook favorites won: 38/66
Picks won: 12/31
Net Units: -3.20u
ROI: -10.32%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.10% | 0.0283 | -135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.77% | -0.0353 | -150 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 68.14% | 0.0222 | -200 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.90% | 0.0956 | -130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.01% | 0.0661 | +105 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 62.51% | 0.0063 | -165 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 53.91% | 0.3208 | +145 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 43.10% | 0.2498 | +190 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 50.43% | 0.2608 | +150 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.67% | 0.0208 | -130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 67.50% | 0.1745 | -135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 33.03% | -0.0255 | +195 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 68.60% | 0.2143 | -130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 39.70% | 0.0718 | +170 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% | 0.2575 | +130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.10% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.77% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 68.14% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.90% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.01% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 62.51% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 53.91% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 56.90% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 50.43% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.67% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 67.50% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 66.97% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 68.60% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.30% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% |
First bad day in a while. Rockies almost had that game tbh. White Sox played poorly the entire time except for the grand slam (which wouldn’t have even happened without a typical Volpe error).
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/8
Picks won: 1/4
Net Units: -1.55u
ROI: -38.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 31/51
Sportsbook favorites won: 31/51
Picks won: 12/25
Net Units: +2.80u
ROI: 11.20%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 38.95% | 0.0127 | +160 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 42.25% | 0.3519 | +220 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.53% | 0.4048 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61.43% | 0.2287 | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 54.10% | 0.0333 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves | 45.72% | 0.1659 | +155 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 33.13% | 0.0767 | +225 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 61.39% | 0.6268 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 61.05% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 57.75% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.53% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61.43% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 54.10% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.28% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 66.87% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 61.39% |
Decent day today. But started the day with two losses which was a bit stressful.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 12/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +1.30u
ROI: 18.57%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 27/43
Sportsbook favorites won: 25/43
Picks won: 11/21
Net Units: +4.35u
ROI: 20.71%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 48.33% | 0.5467 | +220 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 69.11% | 0.1195 | -160 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.59% | 0.1600 | +105 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 46.93% | 0.0090 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 55.21% | -0.0393 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 63.79% | -0.0176 | -185 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 72.30% | 0.2073 | -150 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 58.56% | 0.0541 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.87% | 0.1089 | +120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.21% | 0.3037 | +145 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 42.26% | -0.0068 | +135 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 35.76% | 0.1801 | +230 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 48.68% | 0.3143 | +170 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 58.85% | 0.0594 | -125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 66.97% | 0.3393 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.67% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 69.11% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.59% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 53.07% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 55.21% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 63.79% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 72.30% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 58.56% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.87% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.21% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 57.74% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.24% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 58.85% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 66.97% |
Mid day yesterday. White Sox choked hard. Braves got their 9 runs in the 9th inning bs again.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 3/7
Net Units: +0.85u
ROI: 12.14%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 15/28
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/28
Picks won: 7/14
Net Units: +3.05u
ROI: 21.79%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.04% | 0.1007 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.07% | 0.1532 | -125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 67.31% | 0.3799 | +105 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 43.38% | 0.1279 | +160 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 44.49% | 0.1123 | +150 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 55.45% | 0.0813 | -105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.17% | 0.1165 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.20% | 0.0857 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.44% | 0.0844 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 55.61% | 0.0844 | -105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 33.74% | 0.2992 | +285 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 63.99% | 0.0686 | -150 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.63% | 0.2680 | +120 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 47.32% | 0.2541 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.04% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.07% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 67.31% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.62% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.51% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 55.45% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.17% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.80% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.44% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 55.61% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 66.26% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 63.99% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.63% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 52.68% |
Pretty good start to the week. Athletics clutched hard. Or it may be more accurate to say the pitching manager for the Tigers choked that game.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +2.20u
ROI: 31.43%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +2.20u
ROI: 31.43%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 53.17% | -0.0429 | -125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.54% | 0.2497 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.20% | 0.3041 | +100 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 41.80% | 0.2957 | +210 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 52.00% | 0.1439 | +120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.64% | 0.0791 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 59.54% | -0.0056 | -150 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 37.59% | -0.0225 | +160 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.70% | -0.0133 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 41.80% | 0.0449 | +150 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 51.53% | 0.0306 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 45.77% | 0.3274 | +190 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.15% | 0.2408 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 53.17% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.54% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.20% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 58.20% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 52.00% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.64% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 59.54% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.41% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.70% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 58.20% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 51.53% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 54.23% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.15% |
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