My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +100, 10%
- Boston Red Sox ML -105, 10%
- San Francisco Giants ML -115, 12.5%
- Philadelphia Phillies ML +185, 6%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML -115, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 46.50% | -0.0236 | +110 |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 60.43% | 0.2086 | +100 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.09% | -0.0003 | -165 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox | 60.83% | 0.1863 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.96% | -0.0385 | -210 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 58.34% | -0.0024 | -140 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 42.13% | -0.0099 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers | 46.76% | -0.0180 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 69.53% | 0.0291 | -210 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.14% | 0.0341 | -110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 65.15% | 0.2183 | -115 |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | Athletics | 42.75% | 0.0260 | +140 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Arizona Diamondbacks | 49.02% | 0.1029 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 42.70% | 0.2170 | +185 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 67.45% | 0.2613 | -115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 53.50% |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 60.43% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.09% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox | 60.83% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.96% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 58.34% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 57.87% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.24% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 69.53% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.14% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 65.15% |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | New York Yankees | 57.25% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.98% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 57.30% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 67.45% |
Bayesball Picks 
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