Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Boston Red Sox ML +100, 20%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 4.5%
• Detroit Tigers ML -115, 8.5%
• Milwaukee Brewers ML -120, 18%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +125, 8%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds	Atlanta Braves	58.70%	-0.0314	-155
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	55.44%	0.0588	-110
Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Minnesota Twins	47.19%	0.0146	+115
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	55.26%	0.0334	-115
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	Boston Red Sox	69.52%	0.3904	+100
Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays	Los Angeles Angels	43.69%	0.0922	+150
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	Miami Marlins	51.26%	0.0251	+100
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	51.20%	0.1008	+115
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	Detroit Tigers	61.59%	0.1394	-115
Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers	Kansas City Royals	47.04%	-0.0356	+105
Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros	Milwaukee Brewers	71.11%	0.3012	-120
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	62.40%	-0.0078	-170
New York Yankees vs Athletics	New York Yankees	58.47%	-0.0353	-155
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners	Arizona Diamondbacks	50.00%	0.1250	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Philadelphia Phillies	51.90%	0.0276	+100

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds	Atlanta Braves	58.70%
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	55.44%
Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	52.81%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles*	Baltimore Orioles	55.26%
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	Boston Red Sox	69.52%
Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	56.31%
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	Miami Marlins	51.26%
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	51.20%
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	Detroit Tigers	61.59%
Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	52.96%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros	Milwaukee Brewers	71.11%
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	62.40%
New York Yankees vs Athletics	New York Yankees	58.47%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	50.00%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Philadelphia Phillies	51.90%

*Missing Blue Jays starting pitcher