Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• San Diego Padres ML +115, 9%
• Cleveland Guardians ML +200, 7.5%
• Chicago White Sox ML -125, 9.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +170, 7%
• Texas Rangers ML -115, 9.5%
• Colorado Rockies ML +135, 16%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	62.64%	0.0335	-155
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies	San Diego Padres	56.11%	0.2064	+115
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	57.28%	-0.0319	-145
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	Miami Marlins	51.40%	0.0177	+100
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees	Cleveland Guardians	43.09%	0.2926	+200
Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	58.90%	0.0601	-125
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves	Toronto Blue Jays	51.60%	0.0835	+110
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	Chicago White Sox	63.96%	0.1512	-125
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	San Francisco Giants	45.70%	0.2339	+170
Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Texas Rangers	62.11%	0.1615	-115
Athletics vs Chicago Cubs	Athletics	49.09%	0.0064	+105
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros	Pittsburgh Pirates	51.45%	0.0032	-105
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels	Colorado Rockies	60.77%	0.4280	+135
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	51.03%	0.0462	+105
New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners*	Seattle Mariners	59.65%	0.0081	-145

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	62.64%
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies	San Diego Padres	56.11%
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	57.28%
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	Miami Marlins	51.40%
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	56.91%
Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	58.90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves	Toronto Blue Jays	51.60%
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	Chicago White Sox	63.96%
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	54.30%
Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Texas Rangers	62.11%
Athletics vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	50.91%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros	Pittsburgh Pirates	51.45%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels	Colorado Rockies	60.77%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	51.03%
New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners*	Seattle Mariners	59.65%

*Missing Mets starting pitcher