Really good day today. Astros and White Sox clutched, though the Astros clutch was in part due to umpire shenanigans.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
Picks won: 3/4
Net Units: +2.95u
ROI: 73.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 23/42
Sportsbook favorites won: 20/42
Picks won: 10/15
Net Units: +6.72u
ROI: 44.80%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins | 57.52% | -0.0394 | -150 |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 52.92% | -0.0316 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 62.76% | 0.0732 | -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 44.84% | 0.0763 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.90% | 0.2975 | +150 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.79% | -0.0017 | -170 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.88% | -0.0285 | -155 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 48.59% | 0.0689 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 68.09% | 0.0689 | -175 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 67.71% | 0.0765 | -170 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 61.10% | 0.4663 | +140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.21% | 0.0478 | -125 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.28% | 0.2730 | -105 |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.69% | 0.4082 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 35.23% | 0.0216 | +190 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins | 57.52% |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 52.92% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 62.76% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.16% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.90% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.79% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.88% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 51.41% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 68.09% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 67.71% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 61.10% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.21% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.28% |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.69% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 64.77% |
Solid day today. Making small steps to cover last Friday’s burn.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +0.90u
ROI: 18.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 16/27
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/27
Picks won: 7/11
Net Units: +3.77u
ROI: 34.27%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers- | New York Mets | 65.59% | 0.1610 | -130 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.54% | 0.1104 | +155 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 49.19% | 0.0330 | +110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 31.08% | 0.0103 | +225 |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals- | Washington Nationals | 54.93% | -0.0113 | -125 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.82% | 0.0365 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | 42.12% | -0.0103 | +135 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.54% | -0.0255 | -195 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 56.10% | 0.2341 | +120 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.23% | 0.1938 | -120 |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.31% | 0.1133 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies- | San Francisco Giants | 38.72% | 0.1230 | +190 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 41.71% | 0.0637 | +155 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.68% | 0.0973 | -115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 65.59% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.46% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.81% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 68.92% |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 54.93% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.82% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.88% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 56.10% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.23% |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.31% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 61.28% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 58.29% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.68% |
Pretty solid day to start the week and the month.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +2.87u
ROI: 47.83%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +2.87u
ROI: 47.83%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals* | Miami Marlins | 54.29% | N/A | N/A |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 48.59% | -0.0282 | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.42% | 0.0155 | -125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 61.27% | 0.4092 | +130 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 49.94% | 0.1236 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.03% | 0.3778 | +155 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 73.73% | 0.6221 | +120 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 66.21% | 0.1719 | -130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 55.51% | 0.2767 | +130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 41.99% | -0.0133 | +135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 54.62% | 0.2836 | +135 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 49.70% | -0.0060 | +100 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.12% | 0.0041 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals* | Miami Marlins | 54.29% |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 51.41% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.42% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 61.27% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 50.06% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.03% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 73.73% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 66.21% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 55.51% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.01% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 54.62% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 50.30% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.12% |
*One or both teams may be missing starting pitcher data
Another bad day to bring this week down to a horrible week. Particularly got screwed on Friday though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 1/4
Net Units: -1.35u
ROI: -33.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 50/96
Sportsbook favorites won: 53/96
Picks won: 15/39
Net Units: -4.25u
ROI: -10.90%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.83% | -0.0058 | -145 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 62.62% | 0.3150 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 37.79% | -0.0364 | +155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 43.74% | -0.0378 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.73% | 0.0071 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 50.75% | -0.0509 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 38.28% | -0.0431 | +150 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 42.51% | 0.0628 | +115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 43.88% | 0.1188 | +115 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.28% | 0.3855 | +165 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 70.05% | -0.0403 | -270 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 61.56% | 0.2928 | +110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 46.61% | 0.0720 | +130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 39.40% | 0.1229 | +185 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.82% | 0.1520 | -155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.83% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 62.62% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 62.21% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.26% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.73% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 50.75% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 61.72% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 57.49% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 56.12% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.28% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 70.05% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 61.56% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Texas Rangers | 53.39% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.60% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.82% |
Alright day today. A lot more in line with the smaller more consistent gains my model previously had. Yesterday still stings.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7//15
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: 0.30u
ROI: 7.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 42/81
Sportsbook favorites won: 45/81
Picks won: 14/35
Net Units: -2.90u
ROI: -8.29%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 47.99% | 0.0078 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 42.58% | -0.0206 | +130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.15% | 0.2038 | +150 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 45.40% | 0.1577 | +155 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies* | Philadelphia Phillies | 60.68% | 0.0012 | -155 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.73% | -0.0385 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 45.76% | 0.0525 | +130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 63.59% | -0.0270 | -190 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 47.67% | 0.3825 | +190 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 55.37% | 0.0133 | -120 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 57.51% | -0.0396 | -150 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 57.16% | 0.0289 | -125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 68.91% | 0.0130 | -210 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizonia Diamondbacks | 39.76% | 0.1531 | +190 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.17% | 0.1586 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.01% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.42% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 51.85% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 54.60% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies* | Philadelphia Phillies | 60.68% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 57.27% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.24% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 63.59% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 52.33% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 55.37% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 57.51% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 57.16% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 68.91% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.24% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.17% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Bayesball Picks 