My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 7%
- Boston Red Sox ML +140, 5%
- Athletics ML -105, 8.5%
- Washington Nationals ML +110, 10%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +180, 4%
- New York Mets ML -110, 7.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML +105, 5.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.54% | 0.1878 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 65.24% | 0.0242 | -175 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 47.25% | 0.1340 | +140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 46.46% | 0.0129 | +120 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 53.44% | -0.0113 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.67% | -0.0256 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 59.40% | 0.1584 | -105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 57.93% | 0.0833 | -115 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 59.23% | 0.0306 | -135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 49.04% | 0.0788 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.56% | 0.0184 | -190 |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 58.31% | 0.2245 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Angels | 40.40% | 0.1313 | +180 |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 59.44% | 0.1353 | -110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | 54.64% | 0.1202 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 65.24% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 52.75% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.54% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 53.44% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.67% |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 59.40% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 57.93% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 59.23% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 50.96% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.56% |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 58.31% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.60% |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 59.44% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | 54.64% |
Bayesball Picks 
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