My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Kansas City Royals ML +135, 6.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +115, 11.5%
- Washington Nationals ML +135, 8.5%
- Athletics ML -105, 11%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 10%
- Boston Red Sox ML +110, 8.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +240, 3%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +280, 6%
- New York Mets ML -125, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 48.90% | 0.0512 | +115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 50.06% | 0.1763 | +135 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.09% | 0.0679 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | 46.97% | 0.0568 | +125 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 54.84% | 0.0967 | +100 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago White Sox | 58.56% | 0.2590 | +115 |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 52.24% | 0.2276 | +135 |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 61.82% | 0.2055 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.64% | 0.2006 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.18% | -0.0337 | -145 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.43% | -0.0404 | -120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 56.56% | 0.1878 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.27% | 0.1468 | +240 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Angels | 35.22% | 0.3382 | +280 |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 66.72% | 0.2010 | -125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 51.10% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 50.06% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.09% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 53.03% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 54.84% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago White Sox | 58.56% |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 52.24% |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 61.82% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.64% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.18% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.43% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 56.56% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.27% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 64.78% |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 66.72% |
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