Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Washington Nationals ML -110, 6%
• Detroit Tigers ML +125, 5%
• New York Mets ML +125, 5%
• Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 7%
• Toronto Blue Jays ML +125, 6.5%
• Texas Rangers ML -105, 5.5%
• Athletics ML +105, 11%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	57.94%	0.1067	-110
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Detroit Tigers	50.00%	0.1250	+125
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	Chicago White Sox	44.68%	0.0500	+135
New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners	New York Mets	50.00%	0.1250	+125
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	69.22%	0.0037	-220
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	Baltimore Orioles	52.01%	0.1701	+125
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	60.60%	-0.0243	-165
Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds	Kansas City Royals	42.69%	-0.0395	+125
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves	Toronto Blue Jays	51.42%	0.1569	+125
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers*	San Francisco Giants	44.28%	-0.0037	+125
Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Texas Rangers	56.48%	0.1013	-105
Athletics vs Chicago Cubs	Athletics	59.97%	0.2294	+105
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros	Pittsburgh Pirates	62.37%	0.0291	-155
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	65.71%	0.0645	-160
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers	63.01%	-0.0359	=190

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	57.94%
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	50.00%
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	55.32%
New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	50.00%
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	69.22%
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	Baltimore Orioles	52.01%
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	60.60%
Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	57.31%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves	Toronto Blue Jays	51.42%
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers*	Milwaukee Brewers	55.72%
Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Texas Rangers	56.48%
Athletics vs Chicago Cubs	Athletics	59.97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros	Pittsburgh Pirates	62.37%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	65.71%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers	63.01%

*Missing Brewers starting pitcher