Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Athletics ML +110, 12%
• Houston Astros ML -110, 15%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	66.92%	0.0238	-190
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	Baltimore Orioles	50.00%	-0.0250	-105
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees	Cleveland Guardians	45.45%	0.0909	+140
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	San Francisco Giants	45.72%	0.1614	+155
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves*	Toronto Blue Jays	46.04%	0.2890	+180
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	50.62%	-0.0128	-105
Athletics vs Chicago Cubs	Athletics	60.08%	0.2618	+110
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	66.46%	0.2693	-110
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	44.49%	-0.0213	+120

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	66.92%
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	50.00%
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	54.55%
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	54.28%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves*	Atlanta Braves	53.96%
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	50.62%
Athletics vs Chicago Cubs	Athletics	60.08%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	66.46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers	55.51%

*Missing Blue Jays starting pitcher